The Trump Files

nitro · Aug 17, 2016

It's a beauty contest and always has been. The key is, how many people can we [Clinton/Trump] fleece?

dealmaker · Aug 17, 2016

Tech companies sign on for Election Day day off
Tech companies are giving their employeesNovember 8thoff sothey can vote.The Take Off Election Day campaign has more than 170 companies, including SurveyMonkey and Square, taking part, according to its website.(East Bay Times)

nitro · Aug 17, 2016

dealmaker said:

Tech companies sign on for Election Day day off
Tech companies are giving their employeesNovember 8thoff sothey can vote.The Take Off Election Day campaign has more than 170 companies, including SurveyMonkey and Square, taking part, according to its website.(East Bay Times)
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A good thing for sure. The CEOs and other high level officers are Republicans (more likely Libertarians), and the people that work there are Democrats. So Cliton is getting at least a 20:1 ratio.

Trump is unlikely to win many voters that have a job. Revolutions only have steam when enough people get pissed. There aren't enough of those yet. If there were, it would be Trump vs Bernie.

But wait a few years...

nitro · Aug 17, 2016

I find it fascinating that Republicans appear far more pissed than Democrats and are the ones clamoring for revolution. That is counter-intuitive to me. The only reason Democrats have a chance this time around is the Democrats have the Latinos and African Americans vote.

Democrats have been taking those two groups for granted for a long time. Guys like Rubio are going to try and change at least the Latino vote for the Republicans next time around, 2020/2024.

The African American vote is up for grabs in maybe 2020, and almost certainly in 2024.

nitro · Aug 17, 2016

Republicans are like snipers. They know they have a Mount Everest climb this time around. But patience is an amazing thing.

dealmaker · Aug 17, 2016

nitro said:
I find it fascinating that Republicans appear far more pissed than Democrats and are the ones clamoring for revolution. That is counter-intuitive to me. The only reason Democrats have a chance this time around is the Democrats have the Latinos and African Americans vote.

Democrats have been taking those two groups for granted for a long time. Guys like Rubio are going to try and change at least the Latino vote for the Republicans next time around, 2020/2024.

The African American vote is up for grabs in maybe 2020, and almost certainly in 2024.
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I am guessing large numbers of people in Silicon Valley can't vote as they are on H1-B visas.

OddTrader · Aug 17, 2016

The Science of Crowds

Really, Trump? 'I have the biggest crowds'

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to the crowd at a campaign rally at the University of North Carolina Wilmington, on Aug. 9, 2016. (Evan Vucci / AP)

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/really-trump-i-have-the-biggest-crowds-1.3032405

Jonathan Lemire, The Associated Press
Published Wednesday, August 17, 2016 11:56AM EDT

NEW YORK -- It's a staple of nearly every Donald Trump rally: a boast from the candidate about his massive crowd size, a claim - sometimes true and sometimes not - that thousands more outside are hoping to get in, and a belief that the turnout foreshadows victory in November.

"I actually think I'm going good, I have the biggest crowds," Trump told Fox on Tuesday, in light of sinking poll numbers. "Nobody's ever had crowds like this."

And on Wednesday, Trump hired Stephen Bannon, head of Breitbart News, to head his campaign with an eye on playing up his populist message - and to double down on his raucous rallies.

But Trump may be buying into the hype. Crowd size is frequently not a good indicator of success on Election Day - and some Republicans attribute Trump's refusal to alter his message for the general election to his insistence on measuring success by the adulation he receives from audiences he's already won over. In a general election, candidates typically broaden their message to reach the people not in the event halls, who have yet to be convinced.

"Campaigns that rely too much on anecdotal evidence like crowd sizes when looking to measure progress are easily lulled into a false sense of security," said Kevin Madden, a senior adviser on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign. "They assume, often wrongly, that the echo effect of being surrounded by big crowds of already converted voters is automatically translating into momentum."

Boisterous, often full-house rallies have long been the lynchpin of Trump's campaign, and the Republican nominee took to Twitter in recent days to complain that the media were not giving them the credit they deserve.

"My rallies are not covered properly by the media. They never discuss the real message and never show crowd size or enthusiasm," Trump posted Sunday.

Madden, who does not support Trump, recalls that in the closing days of the campaign four years ago, Romney drew massive crowds on each side of Pennsylvania, one outside Philadelphia and one in Pittsburgh on Election Day.

"Based on crowd size, you'd have thought we had a good chance to win the state, but we ended up losing by about five points," Madden said. "The crowd sizes were there, but the data and the empirical evidence never really were."

Crowd size can play a useful role in developing campaign strategy. A candidate's team always searches for evidence to inform such decisions as to where and when to spend advertising money, which states the candidate should visit and how best to get voters to the polls on Election Day. Campaigns often must balance empirical evidence, like polls and organizational metrics, against anecdotal clues, like crowd size and enthusiasm.

Many Republicans underestimated Trump's success in drawing crowds early in the primaries and the depth of his support among the GOP base.

But Trump has continued to make the rallies the centerpiece of his campaign and his routine in front of his raucous crowds hasn't evolved much. He still delivers red-meat promises to build a wall along the Mexican border, belittles the media and brags about his primary victories, with little attempt to widen his message to target the far more expansive general election.

"I think he plays to the crowd and that's not necessarily a good thing in a campaign where you need tens of millions of votes," said GOP strategist Mike DuHaime, who advised Trump ally Chris Christie's presidential bid. "Playing just to the crowd doesn't work."

But rallies can also provide a useful tactical tool. In 2008, Barack Obama also wowed political pundits with the size of his crowds, collecting voter data from attendees. Bernie Sanders routinely drew bigger crowds than Hillary Clinton, dwarfing her small-donor fundraising totals.

Crowd size also can translate into a wave of small campaign donors. Trump has proven very successful in receiving small donations, which he said made up the bulk of the $82 million he and the party brought in last month.

But despite his usual bravado about his rallies, Trump once let slip publicly that he had some doubts about the relevance of the large, enthusiastic crowds he still draws night after night.

"You've got thousands of people outside trying to get in (today), and this is one hell of a big stadium," the Republican nominee said earlier this month in Jacksonville, Florida.

"I hear we're leading Florida by a bit," he said. "I don't know why we're not leading by a lot. Maybe crowds don't make the difference."

Jill Colvin in West Bend, Wisconsin, and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report
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OddTrader · Aug 18, 2016

Donald Trump’s strange speaking style, as explained by linguists

Is Donald Trump a throwback to ancient oratory — or an undisciplined rambler?

Updated by Tara Golshan on August 18, 2016, 8:30 a.m. ET

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/18/12423688/donald-trump-speech-style-explained-by-linguists

Consider this Trump comment on the Iran nuclear deal during a campaign rally in South Carolina on July 21, 2015. Try to follow the train of thought here:

Q
Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you're a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

UQ
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Optionpro007 · Aug 18, 2016

Trump is not a politician. Just because of that Trumps has won already. I think all politicians are liars, con-artists that will say whatever pleases the commoners to win votes.

Scataphagos · Aug 18, 2016

dealmaker said:
I am guessing large numbers of people in Silicon Valley can't vote as they are on H1-B visas.
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They'll be able to vote Democrat if they want.