Far as in target? Preliminary target is a conservative 19,000 as I grabbed that one at 20,000 (with stop posted in real time). I look at histogram mostly and that last up thrust registered just 1 bar in histogram above 0 line and back under, now that is one of the most obvious patterns suggesting end of oscillation. That was present at time of the flash crash, so I don't buy that the Hound of Hounslow was solely responsible, it was meant to happen.
All past tense. Still no rules. Still no risk management. Still no trade management. Still nothing more than Guess&Hope. Which is why the SLA will always outperform it. Enjoy NeverNeverLand, kids.
Markets aren't mechanical, so I am afraid your mechanical system is also based on guess&hope. Or maybe you got a crystal ball? Lol.
No, it's based on rules. No crystal ball is necessary. In fact, bias is a distinct disadvantage. Having rules does not mean that one is a mechanical trader. The trader without rules is simply gambling. And given that the SLA has far outperformed the "grail" method, and will always do so, the benefits of a rule-based system are self-evident. Which is probably why all professional traders, i.e., those who are financially independent, have rules.
Like what you've done here in adjusting time frames to find signals. May or may not work, but I like the approach. Yes 1 tick above HOD is tight, but you can always re-enter if stopped.
Ok-- It didn't work, but here's the good news--You put yourself out there for others to see with no worry about whether or not trade would be a winner. You risked an incredibly small amount of money--You now have a clear mind to re-analyze and decide if there should be new move. -- You used a very small stop most likely due to the still oversold 60 min chart which lends itself well to bounces.--Really good work here. The scribble folks don't post real time calls and that is a huge concern.
You appear to have the same unerring (not) sense of direction as your friend. Ever consider putting together a viable trading plan? One that would help you distinguish between up and down? I know of one. But it involves being able to draw a straight line. Think you're up to it?