The Trouble With Scribbles

Here is a good example of what not to do. Going into the open, seeing the huge drop, I figured it would end up being a high point day. Either a huge rally to fill the gap from overnight, or another plunge. Of course it doesn't help to expect both up and down.

This first 1 minute chart shows the prep/context and explanation of lines, and what follows is my 5 sec chart with trade explanations. The only thing not commented on the chart is the first short I took which was a loss of 2 points in 1 second. It was more of a reactive trade, and once I'm down, the day doesn't usually go well. I see that it was actually 1 second before the open, but I thought we had already opened.

Everything I tried was a bit too late, by only seconds I guess, but enough that I didn't get into any good moves. Tight stops at least kept me out of serious trouble, but lets face it, today should have been a good day. I've been pretty good lately about just getting in right away when I want to be in, but somehow, I kept missing any chance to short, and I know that once I miss it in the first few seconds, shorting based on a reaction to the down move already is very risky.

EDIT: The sad part is that everything I need was already on my chart going into the open. The range before the open, the apex of the hinge, but most important, the thick cyan support levels where we had both good REV trades and eventually penetrations. Oh well.

 

Well.... still no luck. Tried a couple of longs, and although I had the right idea, first one stopped me out, second one I knew was late and so fear had me exit for a couple of ticks.

I've had good days where I've made 10 point and then called it a day, but when I start down like I did today, it never ends well.

 

Deja vu

 

--04/13/15 RTH Short NQ Jun at 4411.50. Initial stop loss is 4455.00
--04/14/15 RTH Price is 4391.00 Staying short with same stop for now.
--04/17/15. RTH. Price is 4346.75. Staying short for now. Stop lowered to 4439.00

 

Those who are familiar with the material will recognize that we are stalled here most likely because of the median of the weekly trend channel.

 

Careful about initiating new shorts here. We are deeply in oversold territory with a Romy MACD divergence on the 15 min chart.

 

Nicely spotted. That being at a weekly rising TL could stick a firecracker up sellers butt

 

The Romy MACD divergence catches 10 points!

 

Yes, that's what stalled the market.

thanks for the truly succinct quote that clarifies the essence of this method.


Surf

 

At this juncture I wanna bet the farm. I know I shouldn't, yet everything seems to be lining up for some sort of a BANG!