The Trouble With Scribbles

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Buy1Sell2, Mar 30, 2015.

  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    The longer one trades, the more likely he is to have picked up on nuances that are next to impossible to convey. When he tries, he runs the risk of making seem extraordinarily complex what is on the surface extremely simple. Try to explain, for example, the process of walking down a flight of stairs. Or, as I mentioned the other day, the difference between playing the piano using color-coded keys that are matched to color-coded sheet music and playing the piano with any sort of sheet music at all.

    You mention "waiting for price to come to area I want to buy", which is where Auction Market Theory and buying at extremes comes into it. One can try to trade double tops and bottoms and lower highs and higher lows as a way of life, but unless one is doing it at extremes, it is more likely to be a way to the poorhouse. This is what Dunnigan never quite figured out nor, as far as I know, did Joe Ross ever figure it out either (I haven't looked at his stuff in quite some time). If one can wait for price to reach one of these extremes, such as the NQ reversal off 4440, trading can seem like falling off a log. But if he attempts to trade reversals off any sort of manufactured line, particularly one which exists primarily -- or only -- in his head, he will be far less successful.

    As for sites and software, not really. The SLA came about as a means for me to explain Wyckoff, since so many people, particularly young people, have difficulty with the language of 1934. And as Wyckoff is so basic -- demand/supply, price/volume, support/resistance, trending/ranging -- the SLA seeks to be as simple, even simpler since it doesn't include volume. Even so, while many people pick up on it easily, many people don't, primarily because they are so afraid of being wrong and losing money that they are afraid to take the most obvious trades, such as a breakout from a range, or climactic reversals.

    The pdf I've mentioned once or twice :) is all there is, as far as I know, though thematically there are others who have more or less the same objective. Al Brooks, for example, seems to have his heart in the right place, or at least I've been told, but he goes on for two thousand pages, whereas the SLA/AMT is only 44. With charts. And the Brooks books are $200 all told. The SLA/AMT is free. The chief difficulty with those who attempt to teach trading by price is that they begin with the bar, but as price is continuous, and the bar is largely irrelevant, the traps and snares are laid almost at the outset. As an introduction to the whole idea, almost a precis, I can't think of anything better than Section 7 of Wyckoff's course. The algorithmically-incined laugh it off, but what matters is the profits, not how one came about them.

    On a personal note, that you can remain so interested in all of this while undergoing chemotherapy is astonishing. And inspiring.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2015
    #581     Apr 16, 2015
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  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    To Handle, re the above:

    This is an example of what to me conveys important information. It tells me what's on professional traders' minds (by "professional" I mean "big money"). The 11-13 level was important all day from the beginning, and anyone who was unaware of this most likely wound up getting chopped to pieces. And where are we now?

    upload_2015-4-16_23-19-53.png

    Some will look at this and think Oh, Yeah. Others will look at it and think Hunh?
     
    #582     Apr 16, 2015
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  3. k p

    k p

    This is exactly what I have been saying so I'm happy to see that I'm not going crazy by being the only person to think this. The only reason I can assume is because they don't want us to see all of their trades, other than of course that the trades aren't actually taken. Perhaps it doesn't look as magical if they have a few exits and re-entries before finally getting into a trade that takes off.

    I know from personal experience that when trading the NQ, when I hit the reverse button to exit a short and go long, hence needing to buy 2 contracts, this order was filled at 2 different prices. So for those traders who are trading 10 or more contracts, I even have to wonder what their fills are like. I could almost imagine market orders for many contracts occurring at 2 if not 3 different price levels. This sure would be nice to see on a chart.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2015
    #583     Apr 16, 2015
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  4. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    I will only say one thing KP, there is a lot of dishonesty in this business, although it is not absolute. You do your due diligence and be careful, thankful, but careful.
     
    #584     Apr 16, 2015
  5. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    T
    Thanks Magna!
     
    #585     Apr 17, 2015
  6. romik

    romik

    #586     Apr 17, 2015
  7. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    upload_2015-4-17_6-37-39.png
     
    #587     Apr 17, 2015
  8. I actually tried to play that range this morning. Got chopped up a bit though, although the final move made up for it! (Or at least it should have. I didn't catch anything like what I could have)

    Sequence was:
    waited for the break and a retrace, and then shorted/
    Stopped when it looked like it was going the wrong way.
    Soon after being stopped and looked to start dropping off so I got back in.
    Stopped again, and switched long, thinking we were heding back inside the reange.
    Stopped again and ftlipped short! This one could have potentially made a hell of a lot of points, but I covered my previous losses and a little bit extra.
     
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    #588     Apr 17, 2015
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  9. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Don't ignore the "tells":

    upload_2015-4-17_7-12-4.png

    Once you're in a trade, you may want to switch to a 5m interval if you find yourself getting entangled in tick movements and losing sight of the more general picture.

    This is a 15, but I'm sure you'll get the idea:

    upload_2015-4-17_7-31-39.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
    #589     Apr 17, 2015
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  10. trader482

    trader482

    My scribbles so far.

    41715-1.PNG
    41715-2.PNG
     
    #590     Apr 17, 2015
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