I suppose I ought to cross-post this here since it has to do with "scribbles" and the MACD of which BS is so fond: It's really very simple. If one is going to use an indicator as a trigger, then he must decide at the very least what bar interval he's going to use to determine whether or not that trigger has been pulled since the character of the indicator will change with each interval, that is, a divergence on a small interval will vanish if one uses a larger interval, e.g., the 5m and the weekly. If he is going to rely on divergence, he must be clear and specific on what he means by "divergence". In this case, is it the first uptick in the histogram? The first uptick in the MACD line? The first cross? Are there other factors which must be considered before deciding whether or not to act on this "divergence"? Looking at CL on the daily, for example, which is reasonable considering the desire to be in on "big moves", the divergences in the histogram and the MACD took place in December (the histogram diverged on the weekly in December as well, while the MACD did not begin to uptick until January)? If one just now started looking at them, that would explain why those divergences are being ignored. Otherwise, the reasons for their being ignored are justified, particularly since divergences can't be used as triggers if they are long past and are now irrelevant. On the other hand, if one had been following CL and had acted on those divergences, he would have been far too early. In this case, therefore, the simpler option is to ignore the indicator altogether since it has no demonstrable value in making a trading decision. It should be clear by now that indicators lag. They have to. As to their forecasting ability, that is in question as well (see above). If one were to rely on price action, on the other hand, the earliest he would have been in would be the higher swing high after the stride was broken (since it is the higher swing high that signals the break). This may or may not have been too early depending on the trader's risk tolerance, particularly information risk. But he would definitely have been in CL on or immediately after the double bottom at 44 which occurred three weeks ago and which exists regardless of the bar interval or whatever indicator one might be looking at. 44 is 44. To enter now puts one halfway up into the 44-56 range, which is much too vulnerable a position for a PA trader. Hindsight? No. I posted all this two months ago. Ahead of time. In advance. Professionals trade with the dominant market group, while beginners try to forecast the future. -- Alexander Elder http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/when-indicators-dont-lag.290422/page-33#post-4107258
The SLA/AMT method/strategy is simplistic trend line analysis dressed up to look like more than it is. Too many lines--Too many variables. Stick to an easier approach. Buy when things are rising. Sell when things are dropping. Never risk more than 2% of TLNW on any one trade/idea. Let your winners run. Cut your losses short. Don't be duped by the fancy charts.
I am beginning to believe that everyone here who is employing the scribble method is just in the testing phase ie paper trading. Let's see some real time calls with stops etc. --So far I have seen horizontal scribbles without any direction even called, yet the trades are purported to be planned in advance. Both students and educators alike are extremely vague in their descriptions of entries and exits etc. This is an enigma of massive proportions and has no basis in any kind of reality.
Can someone provide a link to the real time calls that were made using the scribble method, that caught the move up today? Thanks in advance.
Why are you like a dog with a bone who will not release no matter the command given? Why does it matter to you how others perceive the market and decide to enter and exit? Why do you place so much value on your own desires that you feel you can bark orders to others to provide "real-time" calls? This is a thread that you started so obviously the whole 'scribble' thing is really a thorn in your side. My advice to you: Get. Over. Yourself.
Gears, will you please provide a chart of where you got in and got out today using the SLA scribble method? Where were the stops? Where were they with relation to your capital? Can you tell us what your plans are for the remaining 2.5 hours using the scribbles? Thanks.-This is very important information to our analysis.