It is because most people see it as random, that people who know it is not random can make money. Most people see intraday as random and most people lose intraday money. Maybe there is a connection between the two? I have a friend who wants to start his own business already for +25 years. He still did not start anything. He says there are no good opportunities. In the same period I started up several businesses and sold them. He will go in pension this year (he much older than me ) and then he will realize that his whole life he was watching for opportunities, opportunities he never found. In the same period thousand or even millions of people started own businesses and several even became billionaires. If you cannot find opportunities does not mean there are no. Same applies in trading. You will never find something that from start does not exist for you.
Exactly. With that random line of thinking, they've lost the battle before it even starts. Conviction is huge in this game
Trading is 99.99% mental, the act of trading is the easy peasy bit - like your friend, it is the same in all walks of life! If you want a job done quickly, always give it to a person who is busy! J_S
Mostly I believe in random periods due to nature of ES, this market has areas based on either cycles(Low percentage chances for trend continuation) that are correct in my back testing to be 50% true or mini swings which are basically areas to fool newbies of turnabout. Now most will say 50% is not all that good, but when one break downs what the other 50% is which is a mixture of chop with smaller range bars(another nuance that newbies know little of when bars get too small, best to stand aside till bigger range bars comes in), low volume spikes in one direction giving false breakouts-these develop as someone hit enough volume to cover two price levels to cause computers to take notice and trip stops, possible chart patterns that scream "please don't trade me" like Megaphones, narrowing of Bollinger Bands is a real toss up of direction. So now the 50% is actually looking pretty good, but mainly looking good, risk can be smaller than the other side of the 50%. Probability tells me at cycle tops/bottoms, price either holds or it doesn't and instead of risking less overall, can increase size but mental protective stops is tightened to 6 ticks. So I can double size and overall risk is the same of all my trades. So I am applying counter-trend signals but it is still in random play cause the market has already gone 10 points. The times price is screaming in one direction, I get very few trades in dropping like an anvil, mee mep roadrunner. But where I am taking profit is where another group of old fart trend traders are taking other side of this old fart trader's trade. I am delighted they going to try to get the bigger pieces and I am satisfied to consistently getting the scraps. And they are the ones causing the market to become directional. YEAAAAAAA.
It all depends, again, on the personal circumstances and trading "strategy" used. I have often seen 100 shares of VXX and XIV go into red, and I then buy another 100 when charts look ok, and if wrong, and it falls some more, I buy another 100, and have kept doing that up to 500, but no more. Then I just wait for rebound and sell for $200 to $300 profit. Worked every time so far. However, the money tied up is not required, as if it was, then it would be a different story, and yes, you then have to take into account the lost opportunities cost of having money that you can use tied up. This is why it is always better to have enough, never risk too much, and just play along like a little incy wincy market maker, as that is exactly what they do in order to make money. Only a fool will overtrade, which I was in the past, but never will happen again, as it is no good making money if you can't hold on to it. J_S
That's so intense...hearing what you went through during surgery...glad you got through it! I'm kinda blown away with the fact you have a trading staff and can trade up to 40 trades an hour. To be efficient with that many trades is crazy. I don't like to say this...because it brings out hostility and disbelief...but I frequently go several weeks without a loss during the year, but I only make 1-2 trades a day. Some weeks I take days off because of FED announcement or option expiration day...too many players in the market go to the sidelines or change tactics. Anyways, I'm basically a freak when comes to efficiency...control...perfectionism...and preservation of energy. I use to have unconventional methods for picking up on women...I won't go into those, but I will add my observations of most of my friends approach to women...walk up to as many as 20 or 30 drunk women in a bar and ask them to go home with them. Many times this worked for them, so was it a success because they did get laid...or was it a failure because they got rejected 20 times before it worked? Of course, they saw it as a complete success...orgasm and all! All that rejection was a waste in my opinion...and the fact there were nights they got nothing except 30 rejections! I remember in the movie "A Beautiful Mind" that John Nash expressed a concept about how to approach women in a bar, don't remember the details though. Good trading to you!
you speak a word..which not absurd is but a drive..keep all alive without it so..we would not grow to see the things..that nature brings in the past..when most did fast the word was sin..no speak with kin some in places..did hide their faces behind the cross..with thoughts of loss so many small..would not grow tall from acts so vile..behind false smile hard to be sold..if parents told the child was beast..not the priest!!!!! it goes to show..what few did know their brain so thick..beat child with stick child done naut..but told the thought as mind on fire..from priests desire the sad part be..covered up you see for all those years..children in tears it goes to show..what you don't know so best to teach..ignore who preach religion be..a curse you see evolved from when..there was no pen the few with power..saw chance to flower and grow so tall..keep masses small to think a dad..could be so mad to beat his own..for sake of throne it goes to show..that what you know is not the best..and must be test the mind it be..like sponge you see it soaks up all..keeping you small so squeeze it dry..open your eye forget all known..care for YOUR OWN! J_S
Semantics? Not all rises in price is an uptrend...not all declines in price is a downtrend...degree is issue? Do scalpers need a trend? If price spikes briefly because of one player unloading a position...is that a trend?