100% of the traders see trends in hindsight, but only a small % of them are able to catch (part of) it while it happens.
And and smaller % of those able to catch it are able to sit tight. To ride that trend. To be confident with their speculation.
Indeed, but those who can do this are not speculating. They can ride the trend because they know what to do and when to do it. They follow a plan that has proven in past to work well. They have a high probability that they will take a big part of the trend. They have confidence.
We're not going to argue about schematics. But for me. It's speculation. Anyway. It's an educated, rational, gamble.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304626104579123383535635644 Trading is not gambling, but most people who think that they trade are in reality gambling. That creates the confusing about trading being gambling. Your trading statistics show you what you are. Gambling has specific statistics. If you trade and your trading statistics are the same, you are gambling. If your statistics are much better, you are a trader. I always have +70% winning trades, with gambling that is impossible. My average profit per trade is far bigger than my average loss per trade. With gambling that is also impossible. I never lose my initially invested capital, most gamblers lose all they have.
As usual in internet forums, the issue is semantics. A 70%+ win rate is still a gamble. A good one. But still not a sure thing. A gamble. No big deal. For others that don't do 70%+, guess what, it's a gamble. A bad one. But still not a sure thing. A gamble.
Yes. A gambler in the long run is dead broke. Well. What they lake is a system with positive expectency.
I ALWAYS have more than 70% so it is a certainty, so not a gamble. Before a month starts I already am sure I will have at least 70% profitable trades. Certainty is the opposite of gamble. The only thing I never know is how much money I will make. Some weeks are very good and some are almost awful. So my average profit per trade can vary heavily.