The great thing about trend is that it allows even the most unsophisticated trader to make money. Usually the profit made from the trend (only 30% of the time) is large enough to make up for all the losses (70% of the time).
Yes, grasshopper. When you can clap using one hand, you be an expert at clapping. Cause so few actually study the markets, break them down into swings and bars, most don't realize the differences of trend and breaking down trend. Markets trending up have much more false signals than trends going down IMHO and back testing, I always trade higher volume going down than going up.
if you use a simple filter e.g. some rules which define a trend, you can squeeze that 70% non trending period down quite a lot.
Hi NoDoji, wouldn't that depend on your definition of a trending move and the time frame you're looking at? BTW, how would you define a trending move? 2 LHs and 2 HHs. 2 LLs and 2 LHs? Or something more detailed? Thanks.
The problem is that most traders are not able to see and use the trend for their advantage. The famous saying "yes but it was in hindsight!" proofs that trends exist and are exploitable. Because the "no sayers" confirm that, in hindsight they know what they should have done, and that was follow the big move that happened, and that big move was the trend. If the trader who saw in hindsight was smart enough to see this in foresight he would make money. So the poblem is not the trend but the trader. But because of ego most like to blame the trend as not working, as they consider themselves as being part of the nec plus ultra in trading, in short the toptraders of the world. These so called toptraders never make mistakes and if things go wrong they always blame others or circumstances, but never themselve. Like the trend that is not your friend.
If you configure your automation to focus on Time & Measurement, as opposed to Levels & Lines, then you should see a vast improvement. I like your idea about automating, but stats show that no system is consistent, the reason being psychology! So, it makes perfect sense to develop and test your logic with reverse engineering - start by using Time as your first condition, then add conditios based on MEASURED MOVES across different timeframes - no matter what timeframe you look at, price will always be in the same place - what you need to work out is the max and min "areas" that price will go next, based on MM's - you will then have a system that is repeatable enough so that you will consistently make money using it. You have a major advantage over most with the ability to programme, as your biggest obstacle is psychological - remove that and you can quickly turn your 200 per day into 2K per day. The OP is mostly correct, in that "most" of what you read in books will not help you make money - whenever the casino changes the odds a very small bit, for promotions or competition, it usually costs them a lot more than they thought it would - to never change your odds you must remove the psychological barriers. J_S
"The TREND is your friend ... the biggest lie ever!" So much drama. Trade the trend, avoid the chop. KISS And for those who are tempted to ask how, figure it out. Lazyness and handouts won't make you successful at this game. Do the work or walk away.
I would think PBs also fall into the above (or are you considering these as #1) Aside - regarding #1 - how can a move be fake..., granted it can be meant to fake out What is the difference between consolidation and range (#2 & 3) Just trying to understand Yeah..., but then so are the rest of us ======================== When you reference "trend" - would you share what you consider that to be - please iow..., how much of a historical view do you include to derive said trend Again - just trying to understand Thx RN