I'm pretty sure babyjake1961 is not a surf puppet. He strikes me as a sincere newbie who doesn't support TA because he believes the Wikipedia misdefinition of it. His mistake was starting an anti-TA thread. I understand why the thread was deleted but I hope he hasn't been banned because of it.
I assure u babyjake1961 is without a doubt 100% marketsurfer. He's been banned and at least one of his topics was deleted.
Don't know how it works. That's good evidence. Not a hacker. Don't need to hide ! And I am against him. Never seen such a BS expert. XD ... Would like to add that We can't prove flying saucer do not exist. Goddammit the way I structure my posts. Surf can't replicate the way I break lines =P Wish I could have said: I MAKE MONEY TRADING !
He's too smart to be surf. And he has his own journal. No surf sockpuppet has taken things to that level before.
The truth of the matter is that Surf cannot hide his telltale writing style...Even when he attempts to sound intelligent or informed, it's usually completely transparent.
I didn't do any back tests. It started from an emotional trade: I bought 200 shares AAPL, it declined, I bought 200 more instead of cutting the loss as I usually do, it continued dropping, I bought 200 again, finally I got out with 800 shares. I wrote in my trading log that I would never do this again, but the next day, I turned 2 losing trades into winning ones with the same method. After that, I began to do it exclusively. Although no losing trades since then, there were many lessons learned, I fine tuning my trades by adding 16 rules to filter out risky buy signals. Maybe in another month, I will have 30 rules to make it safer. I'm well prepared for the big loss day, lose one week's profit? It's fine by me. I agree with you, but I need confidence to trade like this. If I don't believe it's safe, I may cut the losses easily when I need to add more shares, it takes courage to buy when everyone sells.
Personally, I'd probably try something like this out with options...Worst case scenario, you lose a hefty chunk of the premium paid...OTOH, if you tried something like this out in Dec-Jan, you are looking at a disaster as there was no martingaling out of some of those days...
Actually I love options, after I read the book "Options Made Easy" from cover to cover, I had about 5 option trades and all were easy wins. But, I don't like to hold a position for days or even weeks, I like day trading which gives me instant result. If I can't work out the day trading thing, I may change to swing trading or options. I really think options are much easier to make a profit with a significantly lower risk.
I average down in almost everything whether Long Term Commodities to one minute timeframes, BUT I do not advise younger traders to do so or anyone else who has not done the homework of back testing and doing it min of ten years for day trading and 25 years plus for longer term trading, You have to make solid rules on where to add on. I don't have more than nine I believe of reasons of not taking a good signal based on charting, but for stocks, I am more likely to get in early on a stock and more rules of filtering lower percentage signals deeper into trend. I just completed an Options system, it is second one I made in the 3.5 years since I started learning more on trading options than just using as hedges, I didn't like the first system I made, it was profitable but the losing percentages were more than am willing to accept, and I now keep that very low. You have to concentrate on low losing percentages if you are going to average down. When I trade stocks long term, do Debit Spread hedge, first three bars I can tell if it is going to have more risk, sideways risk or little risk, I add at very long percentage of 10%, but not in the stocks, am doing distant Call credit spreads, put credit spreads and monthly Call debit spreads if I see certain pattern for reversal. If market starts going back up, I exit short Call credit spread but keep longs, at 3% higher I add more Debit Call spreads. I am trying at this 10% reduction in stock price to make overall profit on the trade and not to get breakeven, I have target of original stock price to exit all option plays and will exit stock. I do have exit rule that if I am better than breakeven on entire position and market starts to reverse, I can pull plug and liquidate. That is what I do on stocks that trend, but if I find a stock that is going sideways often, I buy on support and hedged, risk small on the stock and if stopped out, exit shorts on the hedge and keep long Put to try to make up loss on short Put and loss on stock. It's been fun, I get to study something new, trading gets so dull when you play same game each day.