great post, darkhorse. lundy, again: there's no magic mathematical formula... Some systems can give you an edge only.
LOL are u kidding? There is a huge difference between having confidence in a long term edge and having confidence in a single trade. A casino has no idea whether they will make or lose money on a given hand or even a given night, but they don't care. p.s. by the way why do pro blackjack players only bet 2% of their bankroll? Because they are confident in the LONG RUN EDGE but they don't know what nasty streaks could await them between here and there. This is exactly what I'm talking about. There is no short run certainty. If there were, it would be folly to only bet 2%.
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What percentage of your predictions come true? Admit they are random and do something useful with your time. My buddy Joe has set up a gardening business and has little monopoly going down his street. Tilling the earth like Tolstoy's hero he is.
True, I don't know about it...nor does any successful trader I know of, nor any successful trader I have ever heard of. That is precisely why I'm so curious and would like to hear more. I'm not trying to be a smartypants or a heckler, just being honest. If you wanted to provide a detailed account of your reasoning, a little background would be cool (I'm fond of explanatory posts, even if they get a little lengthy now and then). But like they say, if ifs were a fifth we'd all be drunk.... rock on p.s. i agree that the market is essentially a mathematical hypothesis and that the riddle can be solved, else I would not be a trader. I just don't think chaotic systems are neat and tidy enough to ring a bell on the turns.
Looks like MSFT, ORCL, and CSCO will lead the new bull wave. Don, why are you playing dumb? Check out my Sleepless Nights thread, I don't see any need for me to post statistics or anything else since I posted that realtime journal. There you will find a real life sample of about 20 or more of my trades. All but 1 was predicted correctly.
"Trade what you THINK, not what you see in RANDOM charts" Yeah. Charts are random. so what? I'm a genius. If I will THINK properly, i will make a lot of $$$ ! LOL Prices are not moving like a random-walk and will never do. Hurst exponent for price series is higher than 0.5 Scientists observe this on many different markets and on many time intervals. See Edgar Peters book "Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets".
I will answer by oversimplifying....so don't take this and bet your mortgage payments on it...it is just the very most basic boiled down and concise description I can think of to save time. Of course it is not going to work without fine tuning and some actual thinking: He made a list of strongest stocks and weakest stocks. He determined this by relative strength (market up 1%, group up 2%, issue up 3%....just example numbers for the sake of simplification: revese for weak stocks) He then narrowed the list to stocks that were trading on pace to be at least at 100% of their average daily volumes. Stocks that were thickly traded only. Not stocks that were relatively strong on great volume if the stock was not normally thick. Not a stock (for an extreme example) that normally traded 30,000 shares a day and was trading 60,000 this day. 200% of not enough is still not enough). He would buy stocks when they were 20-30% off their highs, and short stocks that were 20-30% off their lows. (Of the day) He would determine the price he wanted to enter the trades, put in limit orders, and just leave them. If he got filled, he got filled at the price he wanted. If not, then he never felt he "missed" a trade. He also had targets for profits and he had targets for stops. He used percentages their too. He seldom traded nasdaq, and I seldom traded listed, and it was a long time ago that I discussed trading with him, so I can't remember his exact exit strategies. We never actually worked together, so I did not get to see his trades. Now that is pretty much the basic strategy he used. I for one could not trade quite that way. If I wanted to buy a stock I could not just leave a limit order in and walk away. I would be uncomfortable about it because conditions may have changed by the time I got hit. So this did not suit my style or my personality. He, however, could put in his orders and go to the race track and be comfortable. So obviously the way he excecuted his style was not for everyone. But his approach, his discipline was the backbone of a lot of the most successful daytraders ever. Simple and straigtforward. He believed in relative strength and good volume. I wonder how he would have done in todays market. I guess he would have adapted. Sadly, we will never know. Maybe he would have just waited out the market until it came to him. That would be my guess. He certainly could have afforded to.
I was afraid this would happen.....and I really didn't want to fall into a negative trap where no one looks good. I can only go by the facts I have garnered over the last 25 years on exchange floors, and the last 10 years that Bright Trading has been working with traders. The "technical types" just have not done well at all...it is just a fact, not a slap in the face to those who do ok with it. Charts simply reflect events in the market, and it is those events that we prefer our people use in making judgements and trades. Sure, we're wrong sometimes, and we swtich sides quickly, without fear of being "wrong"...so many times it is harder for those who spend those "sleepless nights" to reverse "opinions" and " go with the flow"..so to speak. When I see a "trough" between support and resistance, the first thing I look for is "dividend yield" where the support is where there is a good ROI and the resistance is where Money market funds make more sense...and there is usually a reason, similar to that, that makes for the chartlike phenomenon...it doesn't mean that the chart is wrong, it simply means that the chart is describing another event. We can agree to disagree on this one. I work really hard to help our traders stay ahead of the game, and feel pretty successful in doing so. When others prove me wrong, in their behalf, I will say "well done." and "show me more.".... Back to trading... Don