Again Don, thanks for re-posting this. I find it very accurate, and truly reflective of the thinking of the genuinely successful and experienced traders. Following is something I just pasted to here that I had written last night in the "SUPER EGO" thread: (abbreviated, and a bit edited) "Trading is more an art. It is about processing information in ways that cannot even be verbalized....does anyone believe that an outfielder can possibly explain what they are thinking when they chase down a fly ball? No, it is instinct. It is what is developed over time. Trading is like that. There is too much to process to put into black and white. The outfielder is prepared and alert and knows where to position himself for each batter, but not exactly where he will ultimately have to go. Just goes by probabilities...Is the batter a power hitter? a pull hitter? Is the stock you are trading volitile? Does it trade with a group? An index? I know many truly successful traders than never look at charts ever! The very best I trader I knew never looked at charts. I admit I do, but just intraday charts...so I can get a graphic idea of where the stock has been during the day. Is it weak? Strong? On a dip? A run-up? That helps me somewhat, because I trade a lot of stocks. But if I only traded a handful, I would likely not bother with charts. I would be watching the stocks, and I would know how they were behaving." BACK TO NOW (Tuesday noon) The trader I talked about that was the "very best" also was virtually always on both sides of the market. He was the guy who taught Schonfeld to trade. I am sure there are many here who may know who I am talking about. Sadly, he passed away a few months back. I miss him and will always be grateful for the wisdom he passed along to so many. He was a generous and funny guy. He never asked for anything in return for his advice. He was a diabetic and unfortunately he went into a shock and never awoke. But he lives on in the hearts of so many traders that greatly owe their success at least in part to him. If I didn't know better, I would think you (Don) and he shared your ideas. I know that isn't the case, but it is funny how what works just works. There is no magic, there are no tricks. There is only the basics of what works more times than not. Which is to say your points will always be valid. Crystal balls are a nice thing to wish for. So are charting secrets that work. Thanks, RS7
The question is, who did you learn from? Of course nothing works thats out there being taught. OTHERWISE IT WOULDN"T BE TAUGHT. It would be used. I've studied fibonacci for about 3 years. However I didn't read a book, and I certainly didn't learn it the conventional way. The only thing I ever read about was the rabbit thing. From there, I went directly to the charts and extracted everything I know about fibonacci today. When you say it doesn't work, you must be talking about a specific application of it. Well, I've derived my own applications and they do work. As far as elliot wave goes, I did the same thing. I read only 1 thing. The market moves in waves, 5 forward, 3 back. Then I went to the charts, and I extracted my own application of this theory. You may know more about common fibonacci knowledge than anyone else. So you can speak on what you know. But you have probably never seen the 40 something applications I have used fibonacci for, so it's not right for you to say that fibonacci doesn't work. The only way to make money in the market is by having uncommon knowledge.
My thanks goes out to you for always being professional and polite even when you disagree with me (which is quite often ) You have my respect.
Well Lundy it takes all different kinds to make a market right? I was never arrogant enough to believe my way is the absolute and only way... You go your way and I will go mine And I wish you all the luck along your journey... PEACE and good trading to you, Commisso
That is simply not true, IMHO. Some traders make money using popular indicators. Some traders lose... luck could be a big factor... money management too. Thats all. I don't believe in "secret uncommon knowledge" which can give you outstanding profits.
To each his own. From my experience I've discovered that the market has it's own mathematical system. It's actually so simple, it just stares us in the face. But because people don't beleive, they don't look. I don't claim to be smarter than anyone else, I found this mathematical system only because I beleived it was possible to predict the markets.
Look: let's just take a look at empirical evidence, what has been done in the real world, what real dollars have been made. the market wizards books are well known, the big hedgies are fairly well known. Dealing strictly with evidence available from successful players of all sizes and timeframes, would anyone care to dispute these points: 1) the most successful short term traders are overwhelmingly technical and use zero prediction, or rather they do not place heavy weight on any single trade, only on a series of trades. PROBABILITY and REPETITION are the keys to their edge. 2) the most successful macro hedgies are overwhelmingly fundamental and use prediction all the time- but they spend millions gathering and synthesizing information to make those predictions. INFORMATION and FORESIGHT are the keys to their edge. SHORT term trading and technical analysis is about probability, not prediction. The casino does not predict the next blackjack hand or the next roulette spin, it just waits for the house edge to kick in. I don't care if I am right on the next trade, I only care about taking enough shots to let the law of averages work in line with my expectation. LONG term trading is about accurately assessing the macro on a fundamental basis. Making predictions by synthesizing large amounts of information and doing better analysis than your peers. Credit flows, liquidity and sentiment are part and parcel of that macro. To dispute these claims, you would have to show me a short term trader who makes big money on fundamentals alone, or a macro player who makes big money on technicals alone. THERE AREN'T ANY. What does that tell you????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Symantics. The predictors (www.predict.com) predicted the roulette wheel. Card counters figured out a system for winning in black jack.