So I am still keying off the SOX. It is just getting pounded! Today it sank below the Sept low then rallied right to the WCOM gap down bottom. Sure enough, that was too much reistance (360 on the SOX) to handle and down we went. Did you see First Union just dumping NVLS today?? Must be some fund capitulating. I bet we'll see a lot more of that in the very near future. In the meantime, the trend is your friend. Happy trading! BB
SilverBullet Member Registered: Jun 2002 Posts: 37 07-03-02 12:16 AM Ok Lundy, you were wrong last week, lets see. THe market needs some people to pick bottoms so the rest can take his money! The trend is your friend, until it ends. But if you pick the end then you are a fucking idiot ____________________________________________________ Okay SilverBullet. Let's suppose July 4th comes and goes without incident. Suppose there are no terror attacks. Let's even suppose that the market gives us a huge rally up in the following week of July 8th through the 12th. Then, can we suppose you won't be showing your face around here? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hmmmm, Lavish....you could be right....I may be spending all the bling I make from a large move like that (either up or down)....Vegas possibly. There are a hell of a lot of reasons for a rally NOT to happen yet, fundamental and technical. Check out www.barchart.com for technical indicator signals. As for your facetious remarks Bullnuts, I will always show my face around here so long as you don't want me around. I am an enigma. Smarten up and head for the hills.
Just FYI, I do understand Lavish has a rather weak grasp on common English vocabulary as was demonstrated by his difficulty with Darkhorse's rather straightforward (although eloquent) comment. Just thought I would justify the bluntness of my previous comment directed towards him --- anything to accelerate the learning curve for the uninitiated of the bottom pickers. See you at the bottom (wherever that may be).
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Battered Nasdaq stocks still face the dreadful prospect of panic selling, as measured by the percentage of down volume recorded at the market's close, says a noted technical analyst. Stocks on the New York Stock Exchange also have ahead of them the furious selling that would mark the start of a bear-market bottom, says Paul F. Desmond of Lowry's Reports Inc. Desmond's study of bear-market bottoms and new bull markets won the Charles H. Dow award this year. In the paper, Desmond tracked 70 years of New York Stock Exchange performance in a search for clues to bear-market bottoms. See the CBS MarketWatch story. Desmond's research should be enough to convince investors the stock market is far from the turbulent healing stage that will mark a return to better days. Desmond's central gauges in determining market bottoms, and market tops, hinge on the selling and buying that takes place in the frenzies that mark the market's peaks and valleys. In the case of a market bottom - an event much awaited and dreaded by investors - Desmond catalogues two features of everyday trading: up volume vs. down volume and points gained vs. points lost. "Panic selling must be measured in terms of intensity rather than just activity," says Desmond at Lowry's, which has been performing factual analysis on financial markets since 1938. His NYSE-based study showed the washout - that classic capitulation by every investor and their mother-in-law - comes only after a series of so-called 90-90 days. Desmond tells me a 90-90 down day occurs only "when downside volume equals 90 percent or more of the sum of upside volume plus downside volume, and points lost equal 90 percent or more of the sum of points gained and points lost." A series of such days, and reversals, comes during panic periods, when investors will sell their holdings at any price, and buy them back, too. In 1987, the 90-90 down days on the NYSE happened on Oct. 16 and on Black Monday, Oct. 19. Two days later, the day the New York Daily News ran the headline "Up the Dow Staircase," investors got a 90-90 up day. That crazy week was followed by two more 90-90 down days and an upper in late October '87, with aftershocks in December and January. Almost every market turning point, in Desmond's research, is marked by such frenzies. The 90 percent downside days indicate prices are being deeply discounted, "perhaps far beyond rational valuations, and that the desire to sell is being exhausted," says Desmond, president of Lowry's Reports. Make that, s-l-o-w-l-y exhausted. You might think shares of Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile), for example, are about as low as they can go. Intel shares Tuesday morning sunk to their lowest point since June 1998. But as wisecracking bird Iago said in Walt Disney's "Alladin," "You'd be surprised what you can live through." Desmond in his research saw no signs during the September 2001 decline, or afterwards, that investors had truly thrown in the towel on the stock market. In other words, there were no NYSE days when 90 percent of all trading activity was marked by falling prices for the securities exchanged and 90 percent of prices were negative, as measured by points lost. "There are lots of cases in the historical record in which volume was 90 percent or more but points (gained or lost) were not 90 percent, and the result was a false reading," Desmond explained Tuesday. "So, having both elements simultaneously surpass 90 percent is very important." On the first day of this week, Nasdaq's down volume came to 93.45 percent, but Desmond says the figure included trading in shares of WorldCom (WCOME: news, chart, profile), a now-penny stock that saw 1.51 billion shares change hands among speculators and disgusted shareholders. With WorldCom trading activity excluded, Nasdaq's volume was 86.7 percent on the downside. Desmond notes that even with the heavy selling on Nasdaq, points lost came nowhere near the 90 percent level for the day. Points lost equaled 81.4 percent of the total of points gained and points lost on Monday. Meanwhile, downtown at the NYSE, down volume Monday was just under 80 percent. Points lost were 80.9 percent of the sum of Points Gained plus Points Lost - "a relatively normal downside day," Desmond said Tuesday. For those who believe they can escape the market's ravages by witnessing a 90-90 day that reverses itself before the close of trading, think again. "I always remind people that when the first trade goes across the tape each morning, that is a 100 percent day, either up or down, but has no legitimacy," Desmond says. "There is also the issue of persistency. If the intraday numbers qualified as 90 percent because of some momentary piece of bad news that was corrected soon thereafter, would that really be a valid 90 percent day? In any case, if the goal is to identify major bottoms, end-of-day numbers are the way to go." Stick this on your dashboard, folks: The bottom is still ahead of us. Not behind. The stock market, both NYSE and Nasdaq, continued its relentless decline Tuesday. At the close, said Desmond, "Based on preliminary numbers, today was not a 90 percent downside day on the NYSE or the Nasdaq. But, they're getting closer
thanks silver, that should help the clueless bring more liquidity so that we can continue the wealth redistribution. too bad some important posts were lost in all the praying and hoping. too bad that ain't trading.
"The trend is your friend, until it ends. But if you pick the end then you are a fucking idiot." ____________________________________________________ Okay SilverBullet. I apologize. It just gets to me to see some of you otherwise brilliant people resort to name calling. FYI, if you feel compelled to continue writing about me to the members, I am a she not a he. Good luck and have fun!
Jeez Lavish you must have done something to really piss him off... :eek: For the record I know from experience that playing counter-trend set-ups can be a very profitable endeavor... As long as the odds are stacked in your favor and the risk is manageable than go for it... As for the whole "predicting" a bottom thing it is foolish... Traders have been "predicting" the bottom since that hellish day in April 2000 when the NAZ went down and then all the way back up 700pts in a day... They have been wrong 100% of the time... This is not a game of right & wrong and it is definitely not a game of predictions... You want to make "predictions" become a fortune teller in a circus... This is a game of odds and risk management... If you want to get on a message board and make "predictions" so that you can beat on your chest or "feel" yourself later on than you are in the wrong game... Anyway PEACE and good trading Lavish, Commisso
Please stop! I'm up to my ass in bottoms! I can't take anymore bottoms! Everytime I buy a bottom, another one shows up and I buy that one too! I have one helluva collection of fine bottoms.