Lundy, First, I wanted to thank you for challenging us all with your daring prediction. Much better than the average lukewarm, uncertain comment that most people would rather share. Plus, I'm not sure you WERE wrong. Perhaps you were a bit early, but the turn will come, sooner rather than later, just because more and more people think that it'll be later Just a short story from my trading past. In late spring of 1998, remember that dip? I bought for my IRA. Same in late summer and especially in October of that year. I like dips. Sold a whole lot around Christmas 1999 - but unfortunately not all - not even half. Still, big gains. In February and March 2001, I bought again for my IRA. Same last September, and again during the last two weeks. I still have some cash in there, but I'll wait. This beast WILL turn, perhaps next week or next month. Just watch those calls of yours, don't let them get too close to expiration. Perhaps it is not too late to turn some of them into spreads of some sort. I have a feeling that Shakespeare would have said something like this: better to have tried to see through the darkness and missed, than to accept being blind and just wait. Not a very Zen attitude, but works for me
Could it be no one wants to hold over this long weekend, just in case something "happens" on the 4th?
remember everybody wait for y2k impact and when nothing happen, market zoom straight up! will it happen again? probably but with lesser degree.
There is nothing wrong with admitting to being blind and just waiting. That, and speed, are the biggest weapons of a trader. If you're taking stabs at a bottom, its in the cards that you'll run out of liquidity before you get it right. That rally you are expecting will eventually come, but by that time you will have averaged so many losing positions that the rally will only recoup a fraction of your loss. Anybody who has tried bottom picking knows exactly what I am talking about. Anyone who trades for a living is better off maintaining capital above all else. After all, your capital is your livelihood. Once your out, you're out.
There is no difference between being early and wrong. Of course being early depends on your timeframe: you only know you were early after your stop is hit.