i just look for when the downtrend will turn to an uptrend. And this is it i beleive. I use lots of indicators as i've mentioned elsewhere on these boards. All homegrown and organic.
Until is decides to whump you Like deciding you know where the bottom is or where the top is. I leave those picks to the crystal ball readers and the psychic hot line. Personally I like the pick that Barons wrote about a few years ago. I don't rememebr the exact statistics but the pro's picks were about 20 % right and the chart pickers were about 20 % right. Then they developed a method that was over 40% right. Hang up the WSJ on the wall and throw darts. Where ever it lands, thats the pick.
it comes as no surprise that the markets are tanking here. I stated at the beginning of the week that the market would bleed this week on new lows. And that was after a huge "bottoming hammer" on the daily naz charts and big up move . If you guys don't know what pivot trading means, then this thread isn't really for you, if you do and you are interested, then its a great day to discuss a bottom. If you can't predict the markets you can't make any money. You make a prediction everytime that you put ona trade. If you are wrong, you stop out, if you are right, you make money. Is that really hard to understand and accept? I find it very funny how traders like to see themselves as neutral... only a non participant can be neutral. Even if you buy on an uptrend, you must predict a pull back, otherwise you are taking too much risk. All I do is predict these things on a bigger time frame. outlaw: last time was in September. edit: even a person who puts on an option is predicting there will be volatility.
now you know what a true contrarian trader is. He has a contrary opinion to the crowd. Theres only a few out there. And definitely only a few that actively participate here. It's the basics of buying and selling profitably. You buy undervalued, and you sell overvalued.
I don't see what the whole problem is here. Apparently we have two different kinds of traders here. I for one am a DAYTRADER and therefore follow the trend as it is happening. Like most of the people responding to Lundy. Lundy however is obviously not a daytrader and uses predictions as I used to do when I played the market and then when I was a stockbroker. We always waited for such moves and then bought. And then came April 2000. No more money and no more buying retail. It's just the mentality of the retail trader as opposed to the daytrader. Both of which I suck at.
Lundy, yes yes yes ... we know all that .. but who said we're neutral ... mostly everybody here disagrees with u .. meaning they are not neutral ... I would say most traders shorted the market at the beginning of the week, and currently they're covering their shorts ... Now honestly, as we're approaching the last quarter of an hour of trading ... with all those shorts being covered, and the market unable to rebound for the close ... I would worry A LOT for next week ... I would cover my shorts RIGHT NOW ... but i DEFINITELY would NOT go long here ... P.S. Statistically speaking, after a dramatic drop such as the one we're seeing today, the market usually rebounds on the next trading day ... so just don't get too excited if u see that happening on Monday ... it would still come lower
i think it's dangerous to call tops and bottoms and expect that you will be right. i call tops and bottoms for my trades all the time, however, i also accept that i have no idea if i'm going to be right or wrong.