honestly on a fundamental basis there are lots of things to short, but I never short based purely on value because if I had done that 3 yrs ago I would have gone broke. So I look at technicals, and most everything that I would like to short seems oversold. Also there are some well respected market timers that think we are in for about a 100 pt rally on the nasdaq.
whats the use in being concerned? I have a stop, if it stops out, it stops out. Me being concerned wont really do anything. Should I have just exited on yesterdays rally? hell no. Yesterdays rally was peanuts to what I'm looking for. However, I always exit some of the position into strength, and I buy that "some" back into weakness, like today. I let my winners run, if i'm right, I will make a killing. If im wrong, I will lose less than 5% of what I could have made.
I feel for too many reasons to talk about, this market is too hard to call right now in any significant time frame. I have been scalping on a daily basis for the first time in many years. Feels good to be flat at the end of the day. Having said this, I think that a 100 pt. rally in the nasdaq would be a nice start. But would it be a run to short? Or the beginning of a meaningful uptrend? Wish I knew. So until I have any real conviction, I will continue to try and take what I can get, and stick to the singles. No home run cuts for me now. I have been doing this for a long time. Long enough to know when I just don't know. ps: sometimes a gut feeling counts.....i went along with Lundy long over the weekend. Only took 4 positions. They were all winners and would have been big winners, but I had no patience early yesterday. Oh well!
This tread reminds me of one I used to check at Microsoft Money. It was full of bottom callers all the way from March 2000 for more than a year. One guy I remember called a bottom, and when challenged said with indignation "so what ARE you waiting for? For Cisco to fall to 60???". It was at 75 then.
I do believe this is a bottom. THE bottom, no. But a bottom with a few months life. Ater distributing stock in Jan/Feb, I am now an accumulator of stock on pullbacks for the past two weeks, and for the next several weeks. Lets see what happens over the next several months from here!
I am not saying you are wrong- you have a 50/50 chance to be right. All this prediction does not do anything, I think. If you think simple, the trend is down: If you look at a longer term chart of the Nasdaq, it looks like a ski slope. There is a HUGE amount of overhead supply of stock- all the people I know that bought techs and rode them down are still holding them, and they agree that they will all sell as soon as they break even. Funds are holding more of the big Techs than they did 2 years ago!! What do you think they are going to do when they come close to break even? But, of course, one never knows...