The Trend is DOWN ... BUT could we be bottoming ???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Bono, Jul 11, 2002.

  1. exce26


    Any upside, Be short.... That is the only way to make money since 2000!
    #21     Jul 12, 2002
  2. Bono


    tnteo and darkhorse,

    I really appreciate your posts on this thread.

    Well one MAIN reason I started this thread is that I'm not a bottom picker myself :) which is an asset IMHO.

    I always stick to my higher peaks + higher troughs definition, and even tnteo now is suggesting that when it happens, it could be a trap ... oh well, of course it could be :(

    Another thing is that I stick to the same old strategy, buy all weaknesses in a Bull trend, sell all rallies in a Bear trend ... so I was just trying to figure out if there are other strategies to basically define a trend reversal ...

    P.S. And yes, I agree that sometimes one ought to take advantage and go long whenever a healthy rally occurs in a Bear trend, and vice versa ...
    #22     Jul 12, 2002
  3. Would someone who has traded through one comment on the characteristics of a violent bear market rally and what signs they recall preceeding it. I have wondered about this because of articles suggesting record short interest levels. Were there, for example, tells in advance in the bond markets, options or futures trading? Or a news item either market related or extra-market? Also, if there are any conspiracy theorists reading this, how might one concoct a violent rally directed either at a market, a single company, or maybe the hedge fund industry?

    #23     Jul 13, 2002
  4. Bono


    Violent bear market rally. I thought we'd get that last Friday, but what we got suggested that this bear trend is far from over. I cannot tell what precedes a violent rally, but I don't see it happening :(
    #24     Jul 14, 2002
  5. Bono


    Oh and one more thing ... if you look closely at the results of this poll, you'd discover that nobody actually knows anything, or can predict anything ... so far the majority voted for "don't know/don't care" ... and the others are almost equally divided ... I think one of the signs could be when everybody doesn't expect a bottom anytime soon ...
    #25     Jul 14, 2002
  6. That's hilarious. And take their phones off their hooks they have, in the past. Today, they just ignore orders.

    Darkhorse: To hear a Market Maker say he doesn't <i>feel</i> obligated to be the buyer of last resort makes one wonder, what does it mean to <i>make</i> a <i>market</i>? And why should this upstanding corporate citizen have any special frachise if all it means is he is 'just another player in the game?'

    Can you hear the doctors saying, 'I don't feel any special obligation on my part to save lives....'

    How about about breach of duty? Negligence?

    Makes you want boot up and <i>take his capital</i>, doesn't it?
    #26     Jul 14, 2002
  7. Bono



    I entirely agree. That makes him/her anything other than a market maker.
    #27     Jul 14, 2002
  8. That's not true at all. From what I see, only 31% "don't know/don't care", while over 69% think they know something.
    #28     Jul 14, 2002
  9. Bono



    That's true ... right now almost 81% have voted for a bottom ... and only 19% for "don't know/don't care" ... however, those 81% are almost equally divided between "currently bottoming", "bottoming in 1-6 months" and "bottoming in 1-2 years" ... which doesn't give any clue at all ... it rather implies that people are confused, scared, you name it ...

    I, personally, would turn a bit optimistic when I see a clear majority voting for a specific bottom ...
    #29     Jul 15, 2002