Discussion in 'Trading' started by Bono, Jul 11, 2002.
"He who picks bottoms gets stinky finger"
as long as we throwing opinions around here are a few useless thoughts:
diversification is a hedge against ignorance and so are broad scale theories that try and encompass the whole market. charts and trendlines and moving averages and divergences, zippidee doo dah. none of this stuff is magic and none of it is precise. we are dealing in probabilities and emotions and cloud shapes and educated guesses. economics is closer to the soft edged disciplines of psychology and sociology than most economists like to admit, and so is TA. think of the Sears slogan, come see the softer side of technical analysis.
the market is a machine with lots of moving parts, a good mechanic who understands the parts can't always diagnose a problem right away but he can frequently pinpoint a source and make reasonable decisions on where to go from there. its possible to put the puzzle pieces together to a reasonable degree with enough information and insight, as long as one recognizes there are no easy answers and analysis is always fallible.
for the past few months tech stocks have been sucking up capital and attention like a heavy breathing fat guy sucking up all the oxygen in a crowded room. this has made it hard for everyone else to breathe. the next step in moving forward is for folks to lose interest in tech, which is starting to happen. the volatility needs to bleed out of this stuff, we need to stop thinking about it, hearing about it, caring about it. when no one cares what intel or dell is going to do, when tech is as ignored and brushed off as utilities were a few years ago, then the market can move on.
once tech flatlines and the sleeping dogs are allowed to lay there, we can see what happens next. NYSE stuff and old line economy type stuff can then step into the spotlight. from there one of two things happen, either the old stuff starts getting bought up again or volatility and selling breaks out in a new place, old economy names and 'safe stocks', and selling of the old safe havens brings the indexes down another level of magnitude.
my personal just for fun guess is that we will see tech drop off the radar screen for a bit and see the old economy stuff get pumped up enough to offer a maybe tradable rally, to let some sunshine in the room for perhaps even a month or two as everyone is relieved not to have to put up with the nauseating stench of loser tech names anymore. but ultimately i think the piper just won't be satisfied and the whole shootin' match is just going to roll over again, with the safe/old economy names leading the new charge down sometime later this year. Joe Public who thought he was smart for moving into whirlpool and bank of america is going to find himself screwed all over again, and then we are going to hear politicians and reporters doing a four alarm mental masturbation dance about how wall street deserves a spanking and this is all howdy doody's fault. -or rather, it will be the same dance we are already hearing now but amplified to a screaming Jim Carrey gone bonkers kind of level.
I never call bottoms.
next major support for the S&P 775@ Septemper 20th
If we take out 775 then 658 is our price target.
Never pay $12 bucks for a Big Mack.
these days it seems that dow and sp500 have just really started going down.
anyone hear talk of market makers throwing up their hands, saying things are so out of whack they can't do their jobs without getting burned, so they are stepping back and saying screw it?
it feels like there is validity to this phenomenon. i missed some good short triggers this week because they acted so squirrely i couldn't get them on, my picks were jumping all around like rabid chipmunks.
so i sit back and shrug, not getting a piece of the downside mo because the inmates have taken over the asylum.
berserk market fans have to be stoked, but those of us who prefer a little civility with the volatility seem to be sidelined in a big way. is everyone running around like chickens with their heads cut off? do they think the sky is falling or what?
weird times man, weird times
darkhorse, re mm:
duh, small world LOL how could i forget that lots of other peeps go to that site...
i guess i was curious to see if there was any firsthand market maker confirmation, guys in the trenches who can confirm the rumors, i know there's a coupla mm's lurking round these parts, it feels right to me but wanted to get some more feedback
Like the MM Cecin said in that article above, "I don't feel any obligation on my part to be buyer of last resort. I'm just another player in the game."
Tears are welling up. After all they do for us, I think they should just take their phones off the hooks when the market crashes. Toooooo bad they're losing money.
LOL let's be honest though- if YOU were an MM, would you feel any obligation to some dude on the other end of a fiberoptic wire? hellz no
i have no love lost for my competition, but i can't get mad at 'em for playing the game
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