You don't have an edge. To be profitable, you need an edge To be honest, you kind of remind me of myself when I first started - which was only 3 years ago
My edge is statistics and knowledge on what deep pockets look for, whats your edge? It better be good
What do you mean by "statistics"? If you're refering to using the past in an attempt to predict the future - it can't be done. Deep pockets? When you see size, it's one of three things (or a combination): an arb, a hedge or a mistake
well you still haven't answered, what is your edge? Just from your comments I have a good feeling you don't know much about trading fundamentals. If you did, you would know what I would be talking about. I love your comment about size as well, apparently you have no idea what size is for in trading. What is your edge ig0r?
Prediction may not be possible but you can always your statistical studies to determine to worth of your reactive system. There are many roads that lead to successful trading. When you say statistical edges are useless then you are basically saying people like dunn, campbell, borish are all lucky. Thats pretty damn false! An edge can be anything really. Execution speed, money management, trading strategy. You just have to have the right combination thats also compatible with you.
Grob109 is a very competent trader, I find many newbies think he's a psychopath because he was brought up in the 30s or so and talk like hamlet, But I must say, his core ideas are so intensely correct, I advise everybody to take multiple looks at each posts he makes. The post about getting on the bikes The post(s) about P/V In this Journey, I ask myself If I want to become a 1-5 million net/year successful trader, what can I do different from the masses. This is a question any successful business will require to answer. You can not expect to open up a laundromat in your neighborhood and expect to make 10-30 million. Its impossible, You need to innovate, you need to do things differently. Open up a super laundromat with video arcades or something, DO SOMETHING OUT OF THE BOX. What can I Do differently from the masses, how do I differentiate myself. This is something I repeatedly ask myself, How do I seperate myself from other traders. OTher traders struggle to make $100k a year, what do I need to do differently to not struggle but to make $500k a year $1 million a year. Then You think about how the big players do it. How do the big players do it? A question I ask myself again, They do it either through 1) systems 2) knowing the markets 3) Inside knowledge 4) flow info So I ask myself again, Which can I do, I can do 1) systems, I can do 2) knowing the markets I can't do 3 or 4 . so I ponder, systems, easier said then done. Can you make an automated assembly line to make a dodge viper when you can not even build an engine by hand? I ask myself that, of course not, to even automate something you need to know how to do everything from scratch, from hand. I wonder, why do so many traders fail, I feel they do not understand what they are doing. So I take a double take, and think of 2) knowing the markets. This is the correct vehicle, To step to ANY level you need to 2) know the markets. Knowing the markets is quite a broad topic, anybody can know the markets. But What does one need to know? What do I NEED TO KNOW? I will answer this later. The next question I ask to myself is, How many 10-50-100 millionaire levels actually *daytraders* have you met, the ones that trade daily. Yes they can make good money day by day, but where are the whales, whales are where everybody wants to be, Thats where I Want to be, can I be a whale trading everyday? Not likely, I don't want to be a daytrader. I want to be a TRADER. What is the reason why daytraders never take it to the next level? This is the reason: They need to take risks everyday. Add up your stops, thats what you need to be risking everyday. While I have nothing against many successful daytraders I know, I find them very impressive. But for me, I have to wonder to myself, do I need to take these risks everyday? I did a little math, Using my daytrading abilities, I can daytrade myself into a long term position , to know which day you want to initiate your long term position, will you need to look look at the charts in longer terms. If I risk 3 ticks in NQ : $30 on a trade My profit goal is 10 ticks in NQ: $90 on a trade thats 1:3 (not calculating commissions) If I risk 3 ticks in NQ: $30 on a trade My profit goal is 60 ticks 3 months later in NQ: $600 on a trade thats 1:20 (not calculating commissions) What do I want to choose, this is the reason why actualy "DAY"trading hits a wall. the RISK issue. If I have a 1:20 R/R Using my methods I can enter a top with confirmation multiple times if needed with 100 onctracts risking 3 ticks each time, maybe max 2 times. $6k If I risk 100 contracts working the market everyday, Thats $3k risk everytime I enter the market. I bring out a 1 year graph of $COMPQ, Look at the trends, why do I need to be risking everyday when if I choose a spot, get in profitably instantly and sit. The moneys in the sitting. Thats all for now, I hope this will conjure up more ideas in all traders minds. There is much to be said on the markets, Every single topic has so much details and sub details, one wishes to understand them all as fast as possible
I edited some of your quote to fit what really comes across as I read your thinking. Dude (to speak to your youth) You are setting yourself up with too many conditions, in my opinion. My brain almost exploded trying to read what you are looking to have happen, with my years of experience of uncertainty in the markets. You are looking for confirmation like a young baby looks to a mom's nipple for food. Nobody here can offer you the true certainty you crave to have. I don't know what will happen with your trading, but you are investing a lot of energy and time in your original post in order to gain certainty. FYI, you don't aim to make 1% per trade. I think you didn't read some important trading books carefully. A successful trader generally risks no more than 1% on each trade. There is a big difference between those two statements. In short, you are going parabolically in the opposite direction of the mentality of a successful trader. You are looking for certainty in results, when all you can be certain about is your plan to execute. The need for certainty in the markets can heavily bias your observational skills. I believe you are setting yourself of for some expensive (relative) lessons. I hope you commit to learn from them.
GetWhatUDeserve, The reason why I'm posting is I like to share knowledge of the markets with the people reading my journal with what I've experienced. I talk to quite a few people who are players in the markets, we are on the same wavelength. so I don't exactly need your approval GetWhatUDeserve. I don't like to repeat myself but post some constructive analysis on the ideas, nobody cares for your psychoanalysis on my ego. Thank you
the reason i asked is cos i am coming from trading futures where markets are usually volatile and margin is only about 5 -10%... anyone transfered here from futures to stocks?