Well, I am just giving you an estimation. As in the past, that pivot might be now or 2 weeks from now. If 9 times out of the last ten there was a sharp pivot then I think we can assume its coming soon.
Forget it. 10-30yr spread is pricing in some higher level of inflation. While inflation is bad for shares in the long run, in the short-term it will likely provide the boost needed to blow right through 1200-1220. And share can stay overbought for a LONG time.
Here is another thing to consider...sentiment. Sentiment is at a notable high right now. Usually when its this high then we see nice drops. http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-8th-2010-4817.html What happens when you have a high level of confidence in anyone or anything? What happens is that one event usually will scamper that confidence very quickly...
little fall in the markets right now comment explaining it fill me with joy : ------------- Bell Potter senior adviser Stuart Smith was optimistic the market would improve throughout the day, however. "We're probably paying the penalty for being up 20-odd points yesterday, but I think we're just taking 24 paces back so we can having a running jump at 4700," Mr Smith said of the ASX 200. ---------------
I will give you a strategy for shorting. You want to wait for the 2 bar break below the moving average. Once the average breaksdown by 2 bars then you can get it on the short. I think all of the conditions and seasonality are aligned for a good fall from here. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
thanks for this. I will watch it as proof of further strength. My signal already arrived. Problem with this method used as is is that one cant load too much if allocated 5% risk to a trade and have around 10% stop I am hoping to load larger position using small risk entries but larger size and implant many positions and take partial profits when warranted & reload, etc. If for example current fall turns into above scenario, my bet size will be substantially larger and will be in better position to load/add when time comes. Downside is substantial IMHO, so playing short only, until conviced to be wrong.
This is true. In fact, some of these high/low points lasted for years. 10/10/02 was the S&P's low for over 6 years and who knows how long 10/11/07 will last as the all-time high. Many others lasted months or even years (the 2005 and 2008 lows come to mind). October is definitely the most pivotal month of the year. A somewhat distant second is March (2000 high, 2009 low, etc.)
Not with valuations at current levels. http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101011.htm Oh, and tell that to people who have tried to buy-and-hold the Nikkei for the last 20 years. Japan's QE didn't help, either.
The fact you are so infatic means we should probably fade you, although I believe this is a hot air rally.