The Top is Now In...Go to Cash now...right now...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by retaildaytrader, Oct 11, 2010.

  1. I have come back here to Elitetrader to complete my CORRECTLY CALLED bottom call with a top call. Elitetraders, it is now time to go to cash. While I feel there might be some room to go up further by a few points, the risk right now is too great to be on the long side.

    If you have not done so already, I urge you to go to cash and get ready for the next move. Remember, we are now entering the period of October. We could wake up one day to a massive explosion in New York City or some large terrorist event in the world right before the elections. Iran could suddenly seal off the Med. Whatever it might be, you should not take any risks right now.

    Look at this chart. The percentage of stocks over their 50 day moving average is now over 90% and has been for several weeks. This is not a time to get loaded up with the longs.

    Remember, price turns very quickly and the downward pressure can last a while.

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  2. How is October correlated with explosions in NYC or terrorist events around the world?
     
  3. Its called the October Surprise.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise

    I was just in NYC. Actually, when I got off the LIRR there were soldiers in the station. It looked like the police were heavily deployed throughout the downtown and midtown area. It as if they have some kind of intelligence and I do not see any reports of this deployment in the mainstream media.

    If something were to occur, lets say a terrorist attack, then it will probably happen within two weeks of the elections. It might not be an explosion, but lets say a group of 10 active shooters on the subway or in a school.

    If something is going to happen, then I would say the greatest chance is within two weeks of those elections and especially 1 week before...
     
  4. I don't know, it seems like you are grasping at straws here. It also seems that this is more directed towards presidential election years after scanning over your link.

    I happen to think we are on the verge of a major bull run here. Anything is possible though. I'm not sure though if your post contains enough relevant information to persuade the majority one way or the other.
     
  5. every time we attempt to push down, the bulls take over and take this thing right back up. At the very least, price action is definitely not indicitive of a top. And to me, thats the most important thing.
     
  6. Lucrum

    Lucrum

  7. What more relevant information do you seek?

    Fact #1: A major election will take place in early November which will decide the direction of the country and which party is in control of the US Government.

    Fact #2: Events have taken place before such elections in the past. Prime example: Iran Hostage Crisis

    http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/1992_cr/h920205-october-clips.htm

    Fact #3: Over 90% of the stocks on the S&P 500 are now traveling above their 50 day moving average. In the time frame of the chart above, such a rise has only lasted for about 2-3 time blocks on the chart. We are now at 1.5 blocks.

    Fact #4: October is, at times, a pivotal month...meaning that the market pivots up or down on that date I dont want to state that matter of factly as each time is different. Here are some examples:

    When I say "pivot", I mean the market is going to do an about face and travel in that direction for an indeterminate period of time. Could be several days, a few weeks or months. You have to look at these dates and see what I mean.

    October 8th 1998
    October 18th 1999
    October 19th 2000
    Sept 25th 2001
    October 10th 2002
    October 29 2003
    October 22 2004
    October 13 2005
    October 11 2007
    October 10 2008
    October 20 2009


    Fact #5: Everyone right now is comfortably bullish and going into fad stocks like Apple and solar. A telling sign....
     
  8. More power to you brother.

    Good luck.
     
  9. I think we could get a minor correction in some sectors soon regardless of whether this is a top or not. Commodoties have been too one sided a trade they usually correct back 5%+ regularily we are overdue for one of those red days ( option expiry makes this likely ). Might be an excellent trading opportunity fishng for a home run.
     
  10. hope you right. i am short again. stops now on b/e. playing with currencies/index futs. looking to increase bet size with profits of this trade, if success.
     
    #10     Oct 11, 2010