the top is in.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Free Thinker, Aug 21, 2005.


    Tops Are In
    This week's action was really a continuation of the downturn the market's began in early August. Aug. 3, to be precise, was when the S&P 500 hit 1245.03. That's an important number to remember, because according to market guru Woody Dorsey, that will be the high for the year for the broad index.

    "That was the print," says the founder of Market Semiotics.

    Ditto for the other main stock averages, Dorsey says. The Nasdaq topped out at a four-year high of 2218.15 on Aug. 2. As for the Dow, its recent top was at 10,705 on July 28, although its high for the year was at 10,940 on March 4.

    Since these recent tops, the indices have been falling back, mostly at a snail's pace -- coinciding, once again, with the predictions Dorsey made previously. The S&P 500 has fallen 25 points, or 2%, the Nasdaq has given back 83 points, or 3.7%, and the Dow has fallen 145 points, or 1.3%.

    And things are about to get worse from here.

    Using his trademark blend of research into the market's technical, fundamental and psychological factors, Dorsey says that after rallying for about three years, the market is now ready for a prolonged downside. The economy and profits are poised to slow down amid rising interest rates, slowing home price appreciation and the surging price of oil, he says.

    After most investors return from vacation and volumes pick up, selling will accelerate in September and through October, Dorsey predicts. There will then be a short rallying reprieve in November before the downtrend resumes. Next year looks ugly.