the top is in ---> the top is moving Not only India Nifty breaks record high. Even FTSE MIB Italy also breaks the record high despite all the political and virus problems Sweden OMXS30 also breaks record high. Countries after countries are breaking record high. Who will be next to break the record high?
RM, Actually, I think the call might still be correct. It is still around the same point. It could turn here and be a double top. Notice the price action between the first top and the bounce. Sorry I was being snarky in an effort to make a point. Apologies. Also most of my comments are intended to be about the difference between prognosticating, and actionable information. There have been some very good and obvious trades in the last 7 days. And here is another. Going short here with a reasonable stop is probably a good bet for some people. Lastly, it is not about calling tops, bottoms and being right, it is about trading as it happens. There is a long distance between the two, but people think there is not much difference. The difference is risk management and ultimately P/L PS: I am short ES now with a stop ready to go. ES overshoots all the time, so it is a bit more tricky.
I don't see a catalyst at all on this trade at the moment. Commodities tend to do well with stimulus and perceived economic recovery. Anything being sold off is more of a sector rotation. Mining sector still relatively cheap so we haven't exhausted value yet. I'd say you'd need a drop in Oil prices to change sentiment in a meaningful way; IT sell off I don't think the people who love IT see it as expensive. If we get a random sell off, which is always possible, I'll close out my Oil positions and focus on mining plays short term. This was my call at lunch time Thursday : I reviewed my notes have tempered my feelings about Silver miners ( will exit some of them on any short term strength ), but I'm feeling fairly confident about Gold miners and somewhat confident about Copper miners at these levels.
Next week should be a trading range, but odds favour up instead of down as soon as we pick a direction for the next major leg up or down.
Yeah, the bias is UP, IMO. For a short, I would not stay around too long, just enough to get a profit and leave a runner with a tighter stop. Which brings up a good point. Nine-E's trade is a different animal than my ES short. I don't expect to be in for more than a day, for the bulk of the position. Possibly closing out tonight or before the US ET open tomorrow. Amount one trades, length of time one trades, etc. All these things play into a good trade management. So just calling a top, bottom or even a direction all are differently actionable or NOT actionable, depending upon how one plays the trade, especially the exit. That is why this calling tops and bottoms is so, for lack of a better description, a newbie thing. Sure it can be true or not true, but it is so far from being a successful trader, it is laughable and hence annoying to many. Furthermore, when someone claims some sort of "expertise" or merit as a trader, it sounds more like ego creeping in than experience. (ok now I said it). Sorry if I offended anyone. Also, I don't want ANYONE here to lose in a trade badly. Sure it happens but I take no joy in it, even if it is just "tuition" to learn. It seems like such silly thing to try and be "better", by making others "worse". But I guess it is how some people operate. The majority here on ET could make good profits and not make much of a dent in the overall financial system. Below is an excerpt from a Bloomberg article about a hedge fund, from today. Mind you, one has to have over 1 million investable assets to be in a hedge fund. And here is what you can expect to happen sooner or later. "Billionaire Jim Simons’s firm, a quant-investing pioneer, is coming off a rough year. Its three public hedge funds posted double-digit losses in 2020 as their algorithms were thrown out of whack by market swings the computers had never seen before. At the same time, its fund for employees and insiders soared 76% last year, Institutional Investor reported."