I’d counter that although this has been correct for the time periods you mention, the true lesson from history is don’t fight free markets — they always win in the end. Positioning correctly for a move like that in a market like this is a life changer. But that trade is less frequent than a generational trade. Not easy and we’re unlikely to get it right. But we are all trading for the allure of that next great trade, right? If a trader isn’t trading for these markets, I don’t know what motivates them.
Both! LOL! My view now -- after trading through multiple market conditions -- is that there are always "markers" before a market tops out in a major way (meaning end to the bull). While there is a lot of speculation, I'm having trouble finding anything that is causing me concern in the overall stock market picture.
lol. mickey's opinion is only successful wall street institutions can remain objective. i disagree. they are more subjective than most imo. they are all selling something. and my point was, even if some human or institution (made up of humans) could somehow remain completely detached emotionally and experientially from markets (they can't), that still doesn't give them magic analytical powers and their opinions correct. it helps immensely to control your emotions. but it isn't a fool proof path to consistent profits either. we're all making calculated bets. good traders just make those calculations better. not necessarily better bets. but i know u well enough to know i'm telling you stuff u already know. on gold and silver, i think the former is oversold, the latter has a serious bid in it, despite being a crowded trade. sentiment in gold is poor. ripe for a resumption of the multi year up trend. silver won't make significant moves without gold cooperating first. it's the leader market there. i qualified my statement with "i think" because so many people thought they were smart to tell me how my original post was wrong. yeah, i know it was wrong. duh. i lost a lot of money on it. i trade with conviction. i'm wrong a lot. i'm not afraid to be wrong. and most likely the majority of them couldn't dream of the performance i'm putting up lately, despite that nasty loss. i tend to agree with your view on markets at the moment. and nothing scares me more about the top finally being in than that!
Futures to surge again as more upside and new historical highs come rolling in. This week, s$p 4000++++++++ Fed meeting again this week but no worries, they will say something to keep the rally going, even if the 10 yr is above 1.5% they will cool it down with some words of wisdom.
I'm up 20.4% since this thread started on my entire account. There are no certainties in markets but my reads have been really good since late October. I have maintained some Silver miner positions, reduced my exposure to one Gold miner, and rebought a few Copper miners last week. Still have Oil and Nat Gas exposure but did take some profits generating some cash so I can pivot in either direction on Monday. I think the Copper and Nat Gas areas are really interesting Monday. Copper to see if this second wave well above $4 is real. Nat Gas because the Cdn Nat Gas firms I rebought all had huge earnings but are being held back by weak price action in Nat Gas in recent weeks. I see Oil / Nat Gas as being partial hedges against each other and Gold miners a potential value play but I want to see some conviction first. Price action late week seemed bullish to me. If something changes I'll have a quick trigger on taking profits I've banked a lot in recent months always good to proceed with some caution when things are going almost too good.
I'm smart enough to recognize recent good fortune and be aware how rapidly things can change. It's just a part time hobby for me that got more active last year after the March drop ( on this account and advising one family member ). Before that, I found simply swing trading in and out of Cdn or US broader market exposure ( noting the exchange rate ) was good enough and extremely time efficient during this bull.
Remote: Going back to your original post, the evidence that you set forth is a sign of excessive speculation -- I agree with that. I just think there is no evidence of a top yet.
I would guess Wall Street type traders would be more objective due to the fact, more data, more professional, more and better tools, work as a team where ideas are bounced around. Right atm it would look like I'm wrong about calling a top (in another thread: "I've bailed") but am not calling defeat yet. The reason being that the Dow will likely fall this week and Nasdaq may rise but not enough. My benchmark for 'market' in this instance is $VTI.
Up up up and away in my beautiful ballooooooonnnn Real-Time Stock Indices Futures US 30 32,792.0 DERIVED 19:40:49 | Futures +127.0 +0.39% US 500 3,943.38 DERIVED 19:40:49 | Futures +10.63 +0.27% US Tech 100 12,954.00 DERIVED 19:40:51 | Futures +29.75 +0.23% Small Cap 2000 2,359.60 DERIVED 19:40:45 | Futures +5.50 +0.23%