His point was that "having a strong opinion" is pretty much wasted energy - but worse, it could get me into serious trouble. If I'm losing money tied to a position based on a strong biased opinion that circumstance tends to compound losses faster. People tend to be moored to their beliefs and they tend to ignore facts and information contrary to those beliefs. And people like to be proven right. It confirms them and supports their ego. Most of the really good traders that I've bumped into during my career didn't have a strong macro opinion. Or at the very least they didn't seem to let their opinions interfere with their trading system. They seemed to be preoccupied with trading their own system to perfection and with managing their positions.
When they say poor traders don't have their ego in control, this is one of the thing they are talking about: they the need to call tops and bottom, especially publicly.
Let's see how you are doing. Thread start SPX at 3714, 3829 on this post, 3842 now. So we are up 3% since your "top" and flat since you reiterated your short call.
well i'm mostly short nasdaq. but not to worry, getting hurt pretty badly today. at least i know u are happy.
any thoughts on what we're seeing today? is the short-tech, long-value trade already over? imho, i think rates will continue higher and the trade isn't over.
Nearly every time (very high percentage) there is the initial sell off which signals the end is approaching then a rally. Double and triple tops very common as an indication on this. In my simplistic retail traders mind I have a theory; The initial selloff comes, not as a surprise but the large whales won't act until it happens. Then the mkt is driven up or allowed to rise, this is the 'Great Escape' exit trapdoor. Smart money then sell to dumb money dip buyers. What to watch for as clues are continual late in the day selloffs.
Rotation. Then climb the "wall of worry" to a new high, or retest the 100MA or 200MA. Either way, Up, Down or Sideways. Trade it as you see it, not as you predict it.
We aren't in a bear market, we are early days of a massive economic recovery, not unlike 2009-2011. Markets may have moved quicker then expected but many of the same trades that worked from 2009-2011 are working now.