Expectation is the average of trade returns. If it is not stationary then I argue that the probability of having negative values is high in a mean-reverting price series.
Nowadays nearly everyone equates "technical analysis" with indicators and patterns, but up until a few decades ago, technical analysis meant price movement. Today only a relative handful of people understand how to interpret price movement, the rest knowing little and understanding less about chart reading. Therefore, to say that one "doesn't use charts or technical analysis" is a meaningless statement, or at least one which conveys no useful information. It's not dissimilar to complaining that it's impossible to achieve success playing the piano when one has been trying to do it while wearing mittens. A more accurate statement might be that the vast majority advocate charts without knowing what charts are or are for or what meaning they are intended to convey, or that the vast majority advocate technical analysis without understanding what technical analysis is or what it's supposed to do Learn how to read a chart. Learn how to determine whether price is going up or down. You will then be leagues ahead of those who are stumbling into blind alleys. If a nine-year-old girl can do it, surely any adult who can tie his or her own shoes can do it.
Not sure whether this is off topic or not since the point of my threads does have to do with developing an edge, but the TL stuff is most definitely the deep end. If you're just starting, look at the Bride Of If You Can Draw A Straight Line (You Can Be A Successful Trader), particularly the first and seventh posts. You'll know by then if it's for you. Any other questions ought to be posted there.
commission is not edge! remeber those through phone days. buy 100shares cost hundreds. but still there are people make money! nowdays, people buy 10k even 100k shares just 7bucks~10bucks for fixed commission firm. for floating rate, buy 100shares cost 0.5buck like IB. of course if you 10kshares, IB is too expensive compare to 7bucks! I still see there are lots of losers there. computer technologies advance, everyone get info as fast as others. so what, using those computer generated indicators, TA, charts,... do notes generate more winners, the street still is full of suckers and losers. that means those are not edges. what I am doing is: when people try to be fast, I try to be slow. when others try to be slow, I try to be fast. I like those HLFs, computer algorithm trading. I do it intelligently and humanly. the mass or the majority in the market often means pointless dummy. only 10% or less means the successful ones. it holds true everywhere. TRUTH is always in the hand of just few
Only if you're trying to trend trade in a mean-reverting price series. Successful traders adapt to the market, they don't expect it to adapt to them.
Someone please post QQQ chart of today, and do it soon so we can see the action live. Go down to 1 or 2 minutes to have close up view.
I went long QQQ put at 0.26 and closed at 0.67. If it is not ZM (Lady Zero Sum) then who paid for the gains?
Is your ability to utilize your gains contingent upon identifying the party who took the other side of your trade? If the value of that put runs beyond .67, does that mean you paid for the gains of the party to whom you sold the put?