Conviction is for pussies and the only reason I am confident is because I long ago figured out that I am weak and stupid... Sincerely, A fool
I think your point is a good one, however, I would add this to it: As surfer said, it's a funny game this one, you have to have the confidence to build different scenarios in your head for what might possibly happen. That takes a lot of confidence, and although knowing that you don't know is also good , humility alone won't help you react when things turn around. Once you have the scenarios, you have to see which one fits the market action the best and go with it. If you are stopped out with a loss, then sometimes it pays to stop out and reverse the position. And that takes humility in the first stage but then big cohones in the second. I don't think it works with all setups, but some 'failed' setups seem to offer amazing opportunities. I personally was not long from higher levels. I expected a rally last Monday which didn't come until 2B patterns were complete on Wednesday. It took until Thursday to see my buy stop filled and now we have a nice 400 point gain on the dow. So this wasn't exactly a stop and reverse trade for me, but I wrote the above because I have some friends who were short and got caught in the monster rally. Maverick.
wow, what a monster pre war move today ! the system captured a substantial portion of the move, and it was decided that the prudent course of action was to take profits. the next neogann channel on the DJIA is 7997-- 8193. we will trade this channel unless there is a gap out of it at the open in either direction, in that case stay tuned and i will try to post the strategy as it develops. once again, if the bombs start, be ready for another monster move up regardless of position in relation to the channel. best, surfer
Hey O, I'm in agreement on that. As far as conviction being for _______ , I'll take that side vs. weak, & stupid everyday. Negative thoughts, beliefs, & actions produce negative results! From my perspective weak, & stupid are eliminated, leaving strong, & smart. This then requires 1 to raise their level of competence in order to remain in the business, or the game. The flipside I guess is if you realize your weak, & stupid, you may avoid certain areas. On a sarcastic note, I find this funny , on a serious 1 I find it pathetic, self deprecating, & of no value. Just my .02! Glad to hear your day went well O! Take care! God Bless & GFtY! Kelly
Kelly, I am of the opinion that self knowledge is good. In the words of Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry in "Magnum Force"......"A man's got to know his limitations." This means to me that knowing one's own risk tolerance, patience, strengths and weaknesses, he can develop and strategy that best suits his "game." Athletes do this all the time, why don't traders? If you have a good inside game, why take outside shots where you struggle to score? If you are small, but can hit the three, why try to pound the boards? We are all different, have different strengths and weaknesses, and discovering who we are, what we need to work on, and how to realistically get to where we want to be is all part of a game plan for success. As you mention, believing that we can achieve the goal is very important. A mindset of "I can't win" will certainly be a self fulfilling prophecy in trading.
Well, I got some heat a while ago while surf was in the bad trade. I was waiting until surf's trade was over to reply so here I go...
Hmmm, I've had short term trades turn into long term trades AND vice versa... Events and time horizons can change... What's the problem? Huh? You don't get it? Position Sizing for one. Shorter Term has lower price flunctuation and allows you to trade larger size. (but usually smaller % Risk per Trade) You trade based on a conviction of some sort at all times. System Rules, Discretionary, or what ever... there is always a base of idea or thought you think is an edge. I'm not being irrational in anyway. I have seen and also been in situations that I changed the way I traded to fit my own ego, especially on the losing trade. I would go in using Gann and when I lost, I would change it around and tell myself I was right. Trying to overfit chart patterns and etc. Yes, I suck and I know my limitation, that's why I like to stay flat with my trades. Please drop the "holier than thou" attitude, unless you're prepared to post your trades and p&l. Do you have some self-esteem problems? I'm sure I don't. Guess what? MANY professionals are positioned long pre-war. I'm sure they are glad that they didn't consult with you before they put on their trades... Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Heh? I was never against the long. Read back. I was actually long for a day but got out because my timing was off. rofl. Thanks, mom. LOL, your welcome son. wdgann, I think you have a weird Jealousy-Infatuation thing going on with surf. Not healthy. [/B][/QUOTE]
Damn... another low esteem brother... Yes, a trader makes mistake all the time. That is why risk management and discipline is sooo important. Sorry for making you vomit but I think it's your problem not mine. You think I'm condascending??? conceited??? OK that's fine, I am from your views. But you never seem to write about what you feel about the tone of the text and never seem to write back about my content. Please do so next time... or are you just jealous or have some personal conflict with me? I'm really not that sure... Do you know me in person??? Also, I am honest with my trading and thoughts. I don't try to bend what I feel. If you don't like it... put me on ignore.