777, Surf, and others, I am clearly not as experienced as most of you guys, however two things are apparent to me. 1. If you want to make an 'investment' (long term trade?) in the QQQ or DIA or SPY, why not just trade off the weekly charts. These appear to trend well on the weekly. 2. I know this is hindsight regarding surf's position, but what would his position be right now if he had followed his method as usual? Also, if he had just stuck to his guns with his method wouldn't he have gotten long in plenty of time to catch the eventual rally? I am not being critical, just adding my .02, which may or may not be worth much. Surf, thanks for the great thread, I have truly enjoyed it, and have learned plenty.
Ptt asks the same question I was wondering... not that I think Surfer is "wrong" to take this position, but isn't this based on the opposite of his usual strategy (anticipating a bottom in this case, instead of waiting for breakout momentum)? Just hoping to clarify the thinking on this.
There are rare times when the herd will run together en masse. One of those times is coming up, and it's called the War Effect. The market should pop hard. (at least until the first terrorist attack.. imho) There's nothing wrong with getting long early, I start averaging in this week. My "War Basket" stocks are getting cheap. MY systems have been turned off for 2 weeks and I pull a few swings here and there, ready to finish off the basket when the bombs start falling. Alot of traders are already averaged in long, and even more will go long at the start of the war. What surf is doing is not strange or worrisome at all. He's a pro. -SubEtha P.S. Surf: Thanks for a GREAT journal!
Professional... hrmmm... Honestly... The initial entry of his trades were short term. Suddenly he changes it to a long term trade. Scrictly, this can be taken as a compromise for not taking a losing trade. He should have taken the losing trade. Then re-evaluate the strategy and trade a different way based on his analysis of the market turning up. It's nice that people are encouraging him and nice to see the community full of loving and caring but... It's not a good trade. or What a "professional" should do, regardless of the result of the trade. I feel it should be last time he does this kind of trade, for himself. I'm sure he's well aware of it himself. Don't get the wrong idea...
Hmmm, I've had short term trades turn into long term trades AND vice versa... Events and time horizons can change... What's the problem? Please drop the "holier than thou" attitude, unless you're prepared to post your trades and p&l. Guess what? MANY professionals are positioned long pre-war. I'm sure they are glad that they didn't consult with you before they put on their trades... Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. rofl. Thanks, mom. wdgann, I think you have a weird Jealousy-Infatuation thing going on with surf. Not healthy.
Man, sometimes I read these boards and one thing always sticks out. You seem to think and portray yourself higher than everyone else, specifically in this post on what "professionals" do. I can tell you professionals make mistakes all the time, ALL THE TIME. You write and talk with such a condascending tone, it makes me vomit. I can tell you this, that I am sure there are traders reading these boards that would trade circles around you, and they wouldn't even dare write with the tone that they could give some other "professional" advice, or even a lecture. Just goes to show you have no idea how hard and difficult this profession really is. It's called mush. It's called stepping out of your boundaries and knowing the market will humble anyone who trades it, regardless of discipline. At one time or another, we all let our guards down... Of course, that is except you, WDGANN.... pass the napkins, I just vomited again.
Hey lighten up on WD, he's a good trader. Surf, you still on a full long position or have you started to cut your losses? FPC