The Surf Report

Continuing to hold the dollar long position via EUR/USD short.

have averaged in 3 times ( max alloted on this play ) and will look to take losses around the 1.3607 level, should this not proceed as anticipated.

regards,

surf

 

There's no point in closing a trade so long as the basic reasons you originally initiated the position(s) still applies.

The problem with posting trades on an anonymous chat board is that anyone can come along and try to talk you out of a trade based on criteria which doesn't apply to your rules, or into one, for that matter.

So long as the original reasons remain inforce for why you entered a position, there's no point in exiting it.

JJ

 

exactly, JJ thanks for the visual--very nice! yes, the trade is about 100 pips from breakeven here--- still within the parameters, expecting nice profits. staying short.

regards,
surf

ps. sweet short entry!

 

bingo! but the problem comes not from confusion whether to hold or drop, but from uncertainty of what the potential drawdown WILL be, not might be. For instance you are short 1.3550, now you might be in red by 30 pips, what if your position goes 200 pips against you on some news, but at the same time your original reason remains a valid one. what then?

 

thanks for the post. yeah, good points--- this is why position sizing in relation to account or trade size is CRITICAL in the FX market. spikes are de riquer in this arena, and one must be able to withstand and/or use them advantageously at times.

surf

 

hi annaland,

I know we have been warned about posting rub reports--- and shall refrain from doing so on this journal. However, as a rising expert in quantitative finance/market microstructure, may i ask, for the edification of myself and the surf report readers, can you provide a brief overview on hedge fund tail risk, fat tails or otherwise? Being in the business, the subject of tails( risky ones in particular) holds much interest for substantial further study on my end. I anticipate your erudite response at your convenience. Thank you.

warmest regards always,

surf

 

Surf, I appreciate your prompt interest in current research topics. I can only disclose so much on the details because that paper is in preliminary states and is not published or forthcoming, yet. Although I sincerely doubt the authors would object to me marketing their work for them, I cannot go into much depth.

The main goal is to determine whether hedge funds have the right motivation to manage risk “effectively” – main findings suggest that they do not and this is where the debate on whether hedge funds should/shouldn't be regulated begins.

The idea behind tail risk is that, when comparing the returns of a HF to an index, HF’s <i> sometimes can </i> eliminate the left (negative) tail of the distribution of hedge fund returns (relative to an index return distribution), while shifting the distribution slightly left (relative to an index return distribution).

That’s a little, tiny, itsy, bitsy taste of the paper and something to think about. Once the paper is forthcoming, I can get into more detail on the findings and criticisms they will likely receive from their estimating techniques. Till then, the details must stay in annaland.

Warmer than almost EVER,
Anna

 

Thank you, Anna. I sIncerely apprieciate your candor and ability to make complex material accessible. Thank you for the taste. I am looking forward to discussing further details on tails and other subjects/objects of mutual interest.

very truly always yours,
surf

 

I agree, HF performance is very interesting. But <i>good </i> research in the area, that uses the appropriate structural form with minimal assumptions, is lacking.

An east coast research university.