post from A1 "Then you start looking at the historical movements of your market. You start looking for factors that precede the historic highs and lows and finally you get a clue, and that clue is that historic highs and lows "turning points" are proceeded by changes in volume that signal institutional participation. It certainly aint you clowns that move markets. Who else could it be?" *** LOL, I can't believe this guy (keeping it clean Surf) is still posting here (didn't he say "Bye" with his first egregious post? ) *** The thing is, to try to bring the Journal back to what Magna dearly wants it to be ... trading, I actually never look at historical data at all when I'm trading anything, hence the mistake with posting the historicals. I like to keep my attention on the present, with an eye to the future, and here is what I see now for the Pair (red arrow at top shows the turn of the market, red bar at the bottom shows the duration of move). Good trading - especially you Surf, you're light years beyond most of these goombas. Jimmy Jam
Indeed you have captured the essence of my statement with this sentence. Something of extreme importance for those that adopt a martingale style. Regards Corelio
thanks for the erudite and thought provoking posts, corelio. good points all. nice to see you here! regards, surf
a rare appearance from the genius and reclusive Nasim Taleb in NYC Wednesday: http://www.bordersstores.com/events/event_detail.jsp?SEID=142838 http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tbs.mov surf
taleb is an academic, teaching is in his blood. i wouldn't call it rationing knowledge for dollars. its what he loves to do/ as you know, empirica shut its original fund down, and is currently operating as a think tank/ FOF/ hedging operation of some sort. do you have any details about the truth of what happened to the original empirica? surf
Ok, that makes sense. Thanks! Give microstructure (or me ) several years before it changes the microstructural problems in the FX market. Good to see your journal is back and happenin, ET-style. Good luck with your trades, and as always, <i> I </i> will see <i> YOU </i> and your fat fingers in marketannasurferland more warmly, anna
thanks, anna. my # 1 quant girl-- always a pleasure with you, all ways! several firms such as MBtrading have attempted to narrow the spread by charging a commission--others like hotspot adopted the ECN model. still seems that the typical wide spread dealer is thriving--not sure why or how. eventually, i believe trader education will force them to change to the no/limited spread plus commission model. otherwise, they just wont survive with an educated trader base--- free TA charts, etc. just doesnt cut it any longer. surf
correct. your on top of things, atticus. do you think the typical FX retail dealer is on the way out? surf
They (dealers) fill a niche. CME/Reuters will appeal to those who trade the majors with futures accounts. Those trading the exotic pairs will stick to dealers and the ECNs.