The Surf Report

hey annaland,

thanks for the note. i don't use stops when trading FX. i trade FX with miniscule size and comparatively i am very new to this market. my tactic is simply, when the calculations indicate a move is over extended, i'll fade the move with an average of 3 entries ( martingaling in so to speak) prior to being proven wrong and taking the loss. since its not exact, and a wide margin of error is needed for this method to have the time to work at times.

in my short time trading this market via dealers, i have learned never to use fixed stops, as the dealers are the counter party, and will often spike price momentarily to take your money if you have fixed stops. i use the concept of total dollar loss compared to $$ allocated to the market as tool to take losses when trading in this manner.
warmly,
surf

 

jealousy must suck.

perhaps you should look into collector car insurance for your imaginary 1972 Daytona--- premiums are not "stratospheric"

 

I don't follow the monte carlo analogy.

 

your right--- martingale. my mistake. thanks!

 

LOL, that's why I'm constantly receiving PM's from other traders who write me to thank me for helping them, and counsel that I should ignore the crap (like yours) on ET and keep doing good work.

It's hard to believe this geriatric clown really believes he has the inside scoop on what it takes to be a successful independent trader, much less the ability to judge anyone else here at Elite Trader. It's amazing how the vendors abate and the trolls step right in to fill the vacuum.

... for anyone who knows me OR Surf, this is really sad.

LOL, the dementia is nearing completion.

Jimmy Jam

 

A simple study may be in order here. One can think of quantifying price moves after expansions from low volatility regimes in different instruments as a function of the margin structure. Do price moves are invariably larger and more prolonged in futures than in equities, or in equities than in currencies? This should provide some insight.

Another thing comes to mind when the EUR/USD pair cleared above its early January high and its steady and persistent ascent since then. A quantitative study of the highs/lows set in the first week of the year in such pair may provide you with valuable information.

Is the stubborn and quiet back and fill of the GBP/USD pair slightly below 2.0 an omen for things to come? Not coincidentally followed by a sudden and quick spurt of gold stocks during Friday's trading session? Interesting points to quantify...which should provide some gratifying insight.

Best of luck...

 

I honestly don't know about the other stuff, but the EUR/USD pair hasn't cleared above its early January high.

JJ

 

Take a look at your chart and compare it to the entries.

 

Yeah, you're right.

I was using H7 for the historical snapshot. Here's the updated historical chart with those values posted.

JJ

 

This is actually very interesting. IF and only IF, I understood it correctly it means:

If, prices are a function of margin structure, then you are capturing the ‘leverage effect’. For FX this means:
--> a decrease in depreciation increases volatility, which should move prices.

For equities, this means:
--> negative past returns are related to an increase in (future) volatility, which should move prices as well.

I would expect the FX leverage effect to be more significant simply because the market is more levered and less (if at all) regulated. Therefore, all price movements would be intensely magnified in FX relative to equities.