Thanks, Fast! The reasons for that short were plentiful indeed. Let's list a few: - Major pivot hit at 46.25 - The doji indeed. But you can use bars, too... - More so than the doji was the fact that the 13:15 candle (15m chart) was a significant pivot time several days in a row now (the market has memory), did you notice? - Subsequent lower highs and lower lows - Decreasing volume on upmove - Average daily range more than attained (!) - Larger TF trend was clearly down - Major trendline for the day was broken (13:20) Overall, reasons to short plentiful. The fact that most people would have seen at least one or two of these things is what made it low-risk. After all, the market is a people thing... Find attached what I was looking at. I don't use any indicators (anymore) - No surprise - As if all those pivots and trendlines aren't more than enough mess... :eek: Scientist
at 1031...still holding the remainder for a break of the 1029.75 ES price level (LOD from 10/28) for a ride into no-mans land. I will hold over the weekend most likely while out here in Vegas enjoying the Trade Expo! Good Fortunes! Chris
surf, could you just clean up your inbox once in a decade? You PM me, I can never reply! You can just just back up all your PM's from ET and save them on your computer BTW! Best, ~S
Just did an ADD of 20% to my ES SHORT at 1036.75. Will now call it a day and go to the Expo and hold this position going into the weekend. Chris BTW, still looking for 1029.75 test either today or Monday.
I mentioned a study I did on retracements in the S&P this year - since I've done the work, I figured that I might as well share it. If you accept that the history suggests that a strong Oct YTD is followed by a positive Oct-Dec then this current pullback (6 days old) has a strong probability of being a retracement rather than a break. If so, it's worth studying precedental retracements - which this year have exhibited surprising consistency (see picture). "share and enjoy"
Chris, hell of a call at the pivot, you beat me to it! I'm short since 36.25, stops just above HOD (37.50/5T) Taking 1/2 off at 34.50, then: 1st target: 33.50 2nd target: 31.00 3rd ... probably below 30 I'd say... See how we go... Have a nice one at the expo! Scientist.