Not if his trades are independent of one another, since joint probability has no bearing on the probability of the next outcome. Generously assuming, of course, that numeric probability can reasonably be attributed to trading with meaningful reliability. But then, surf does often compare trading to a series of coin flips...
Up a couple of points in the ES short from 1353. This may be the start of the projected meltdown. Holding shorts.
Hanging on short here thru this apparent (hopefully) topping action. The blow off top has occured, and the edge is on the downside. Good luck!
This thread makes me cringe. Why do you insist on battling the market? If you had listened to Volente_00 (and others), you'd be up 60 points now, is that pennies for you too? I know you don't "believe" in TA or trendfollowing. I sincerely regret holding gold since the 600s and trading off basic S/R on the ES... I just don't understand why you want to make it so hard for yourself?
There has been zero signs of a 'blow off top"....not even close! This is textbook consolidation for the next leg higher or an ERB.....one could make an argument for a spinning top/indecision depending on the closing candle. GL
Whoa...WHOA!!! A blow off top is strictly a TA term surf, and since you do not use TA, what are you talking about exactly?