Okay, no profit target is very good, unlimited gain, limited loss, position sized to comfirm a true trend reversal if you are wrong. Nice. Markets for a good technician will have systems built on volatility and volume. An engineers black and white mind can grasp this as soon as that mind realizes that it is dealing in a sort of quantum environment. Then that mind will realize that linear rules cannot apply, by definition. Pretty good post there Surf. Edit: Gann, in my opinion recognized this at some point. I think he turned to astro to try to time markets because planetary movements plot as sine waves of different amplitudes on a planar surface. This is that fourth dimension he was trying to hash out.
A blast from the past: My published thoughts on the eve of 2010 2010 Through My Eyes I know itâs said that prediction isnât something an investor/trader should practice. However on this final day of 2009, it seems apropos to take a look at some of the challenges and successes possible in the New Year. While it certainly appears like the economy has turned the corner, there are extreme challenges awaiting the United States in 2010. Most of the major indicators have signaled steady improvement over the last several quarters. Earnings have for the most part, been surprisingly solid in the backbone firms of society. Stocks have reflected this improvement by soaring higher bolstered by growing investor confidence and risk taking desire. Things seem healthy on the outside but digging deeper reveals the improvement may be grounded on a shaky foundation. For example, if one looks closely at the earnings picture it becomes clear that they were shored up by cost cutting measures and not increased production in many cases. This painting of the books so to speak, while not illegal, is only a temporary fix. It acts as a shot in the arm to make things look good over the short term. In essence the firm is buying time to ramp up the real engine of growth, production. The economic improvement has been primarily driven by massive governmental intervention. The trick in 2010 is for the government to extract itself from private industry without creating too many negative waves. More effort needs to be placed in kick starting the consumer credit markets in unique and innovative ways for bottom up growth. This way, the consumer will once again power the economy. If its done correctly, it will be a sustainable, natural support. Therefore the government can get back to governing and not being the sole source of economic strength. The spectre of interest rate increases also hangs heavy over the stock market for 2010. A very weak Greenback and the situation in the bond market may force the Fed to increase rates. If this occurs, expect a fast and potentially severe drop in the stock market. However, the incremental general nature of rate increases should mitigate the potential of a knock out blow for the year. <b>A very real possibility exists of geo political events shaking investors confidence this year. New conflicts or random terrorist type attacks hang heavy as tensions have not abated worldwide. On the other hand, the increased optimism and momentum developed in 2009 can easily carry over into the New Year. Only time will tell for certain how the future will play out. See you next year and expect the unexpected!</b>
Another good call. A technician will observe this by seeing a lot of emotional candles at the top, shooting stars, gravestones, dark clounds, etc. Stochastic variances of the major momo indicators will start to emerge, and volume will increase without a concordant move in price. Then, since the bears are not sure if they can advance, and the bears are not yet sure if they can rout the bulls, volume falls. The bulls have hit the wall. All this can be seen without knowing anything that the feds says.
And so, to summarize, you were predicting that it would go either one way or the other. Would that be accurate?
Yes, of course. I don't play word games--every directional trade or economic projection is a prediction. surf
Why? The either/or prediction is a perennial favorite among visionaries. "Cover each base, save more face." Marketsurfer's prediction was the very burqa of revelation.
Another?? Not to mention that he hedged his opinion/outlook, so either way he would be right.... Oh yes, an outlook is usually worthless anyway, because as we know, in trading TIMING is everything....
1. Since 2001, every year you can pretty say that geo political events, conflicts or terrorist attacks could hurt the market. 2. Your second paragraph says the market could go up or the market could go down. Seriously, just stick to calling your scalps up and down and stop patting yourself on the back for predicting in December 2009 that 2010 could be an up or down year.