EPrado, Trading the markets on small time frames is basically akin to sniffing out BS and acting on it. You trade for a living (so you must be good at sniffing out BS), yet it seems you haven't completely sniffed out the BS here. Spooz Top gets it, so does Eudaemon and a host of others. What does common sense and your BS radar tell you about this thread?
I believe I have sniffed out the BS in here pretty good. I just "try" and hold civil trading conversations with Surf......but man...it's getting tougher as time goes by. But I see your point....why would someone who has traded for 18 yrs post on here? As far as my BS meter.....funny.....it has been on super high alert since the 30 lot trade....before it was just on high alert.
the trades could be real. why would he lie? there are other possible explanations. for example, 30 cars may be pocket change to him. this could explain the recklessness. he recently got married. could his wife have beefed up the account with a couple of bucks?
What I find fascinating, in a pathological sort of way, is the implicit assumption that "fixed system traders" all trade the same side of the market, which just happens to be the opposite side of the market that marketsurfer happens to be trading at the time. Thus, if he's short, all "fixed system traders" must be long. If they are looking for a reversal, the market must be about to enter a continuation. When you really break down the "logic" of his comments on "fixed system traders", they're absurd. I agree that reading through the thread, this guy's got no edge. Any edge that goes flat for months at a time is hardly worth anything. I read a nice paper once that said that the most informed traders tend to use limit orders because they always know exactly what price they want to pay for something. I have seen no evidence that you could turn what this guy's doing into something that would generate limit orders on a consistent basis. Any "system" where a guy is saying "Alert, Alert" is way too unstable for me to want to trade. And the whole "drivers of price" thing is also ungrounded in anything, as far as I can see. The time lag between a professional trader's perception of value in the market and the execution of a trade against that perception is virtually instantaneous, whatever the timeframe. Between the perception of value and the execution of a trade there really is no measurable intermediate step. It's not as if a big institutional trader sees value in the market, goes and does something else that can be picked up by some measurement system, then places a trade, such that anyone attuned to that other measurement system would be able to anticipate that once that measurement system registered a change in value, it would then lead to a change in value in price. The whole reason people pay attention to price is because it IS the measurement system. There isn't anything else measurable, in real-time, that is indicative of where price will be in the future. If there were, that "something else" would become price, because that's what people would pay attention to! The whole "theory" behind this stuff is crackpottery.
Very rarely do you see a guy who goes from 1-3 lots to 30 lots in an instance. If his account was funded for 30 lots , you would have seen bigger trades than 1,3, and the occasional 6 lots over time. Surf trades for a hobby........the 1-3 lots were very believable....the 30 lot was a huge tell. At the end of the day it doesn't matter. Even if he was trading real money, he could just come on here and post bs trades. My problem with people who trade on a sim/fantasy trades are that they can't be taken seriously. I have seen so many guys over the years, come to the firms I was with, get on a sim, do things they wouldn't do in a real account...go live...then fold like a tent and fail.