Some thoughts from the srf shack on facebook valuation.... Recent moon shot valuations for a variety of launched and pending social network IPOs have dwarfed the original Internet IPO boom by a wide margin. The kingpin of social networks, Facebook, is leading the valuation charge with a number pushing $100 billion._ That is, if there isnât a black swan-type economic or internal event between now and its pending launch in spring 2012. Heck, even a widespread migration away from the site due to revolutionary new technology or unforeseeable changes in consumer behavior could lower this number drastically by the time the launch actually takes place. Facebook doesnât appear to understand the time risk its undertaking by prolonging the launch. With this said, if Facebook gets the expected valuation at the IPO it will instantly place the company as one of the largest high tech companies. For some perspective on size, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is valued at $300 billion; Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) at $203 billion; and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) at $162 billion. These three titans of tech worked for years to prove their valuations. Facebook will join their ranks instantly, not a sobering thought for those who understand how bubbles really work._ One look at how Linked In (NYSE: LNKD) shares have fared after the initial pop higher paints a cautious picture for those ready to jump on the Facebook moon shot. A series of companies are riding the coat tails of Facebook, yet taking the IPO plunge earlier. It wouldnât be surprising if this turns out to be a savvy move looking back from mid 2013._ One of the more popular firms jumping into the IPO fray is Zygna. Itâs an online social game company that provides games on Facebook. _Itâs products such as Farmville and Mafia Wars are hugely popular. The company claims 215 million monthly users and is quickly eroding market share from traditional video game companies._ Itâs planning to file IPO paperwork _today to raise $1.5 to $2 billion._ The current numbers for the company are sketchy right now since its private, but annual revenue is estimated to be about $1 billion._ Interestingly, the revenue is gleaned from selling âvirtualâ items for its games._ A unique concept, but the question is will it last? There will be fortunes made for the early investors in these social network companies._ However, the fate of the rest of us who have to wait for the IPO is far from certain.
Surf did you get long yet (SP 500) The market has finally broken out of a 15 day 40 point trading range and closed above 1292 yesterday signaling long.
No, I'm not trading or even watching the market so thanks for the heads up. Looks like a great shorting opportunity may be setting up by the time I get back! Surf
Sit on the side lines then, if you go short here you might get your face peeled. I got a ten lot on from the open of daily chart yesterday and the pivot is 1312 where they may want to retest the swing high of 1340's but 1320's stand in the way.