Aaaaaaaand like clock work LOW does exactly what i thought it would do into the close, lol. Fucking algos just cut me to pieces on this one only lost 200 from top and none of the losses were big as you can see, but i kept going to the well over and over thinking it was right about to crack, i should have just taken nothing size, like 200 shares and waited for it to get to a different range then added if i wanted to. This is why im usually hesitant about taking mid afternoon trades in a choppy market, i missed all the good ones again, then sold myself on LOW, and the algos just cut me to pieces. Now bots driving it up in the after market.
Just pouring over charts here in the after market setting myself up for tomorrow, and something that stands out to me big time is the afternoon action on FB, it tried all day to get through 164.75 and it couldnt do it, now its breaking down off that level. In my mind it tells me there is a seller willing to dump everything he has if he can get it over 164.75. I will be watching this closely as a potential short tomorrow. I really wanted the ES/NQ to push until tomorrow afternoon but i would be shocked if we dont see selling tomorrow, bad news has been building up all week, and the market has been kind of grinding higher like a jenga tower and shrugging it off all week, My thought process on the ES/NQ/FB was if it kept on going i wanted to short it friday afternoon, but this may very well be the top here.
I'm gonna shit if 162.5 puts go ITM tomorrow. It'll help me with my 160 covered call, but after my call here the damage to my ego would be worse than the gain.
Yeah it was a good call on FB, but i dont short shit till it sets up, I have what i call the "TAB-FANG" index taking up 1 entire screen right now, so i didnt notice it till EOD. but it stands out like a sore thumb now. Only thing you got to worry about FB looks awfully similar to the ES, or NQ, so if they explode up tomorrow got to be cautious. But i like the idea tomorrow now definitely going to be a top watch.
Any break through 163 if theres a market meltdown, and FB should be good for a move too 160 IMO, thats what im seeing on it. But it looks almost identical to an ES daily so its hard to say if you should trade FB or just take the ES short in that scenario
Here is the chart of the ES it also looks like its breaking down off this high, i really wanted to seee it go paraolic into tomorrow afternoon to look for a short on a squeeze towards 2500, but it doesnt look like ES is going to get there either, I will have to decide tomorrow morning, but we are setting lower highs on the ES all afternoon and the market shrugged off devastating news all week and kept grinding higher, my guess is that we break down tomorrow. In my head i cant fathom how anyone with buying power is sitting there with their finger on the trigger waiting to buy more, where as there has to be a ton of people who would feel like the ES bailed them out at this level, cant wait to sell given the news this week.
I think the way i am going to trade this is as follows, im going to look for SPY puts that expire at the end of the day based on roughly the 2460 area, if it goes to 2460 i think we hit 2450 tomorrow. SPY 246 puts trading for 10 cents, could buy 40 of those for 400 bucks and make over a buck if it pays out. Still just working shit out in my head on this one guys, dont follow me blindly here, theres alot of shit that has to setup for this to happen tomorrow.
Im looking at SPY 246 PUTS for 10 cents, or else SPY 247 PUTS for 37 cents, im fairly confident i can scratch the 247 puts no matter what, but the 246 puts i could buy 100 for 10 cents and its a 10k day if the ES does what i think is going to happen.
Be careful on this one guys dont blindly chase it, what im looking for is a break below 2470 tomorrow, and im thinking if that happens there will be follow through. Its still just a brain fart at this point.
Careful on FB too guys its turning into a channel now as well i wont make a decision either way until im sure, or its breaking the channel, thats why i said wait till tomorrow.