Very tempting to add to NUGT short here at 35.50 mostly im just holding this so i have a harmless position whereby it brings my average price up if i want to short gold later if it cracks, but if gold goes up on the fed decision, i stop out harmlessly for a 20 tick loser MAX with slippage.
"For every $2 made, $1 is lost."..isn't this a pretty good expectancy if you have a 50-50 win loss ratio ??? Expectancy ratio would be: $2 x.50 - $1x.50 = +.50 correct ?
So ive had nothing to do all day but twiddle my thumbs and think about this fed decision, probably atleast 8 out of 10 times the fed decision turns into a big up day. But i honestly think this time is different. In my head im thinking, who in their right mind, with money behind them is going to get wildly bullish because the fed raises rates today? I mean what case can you make for being bullish on that? We may drift up today based on the decision, but i think its hollow, i think this is the top, i will trade accordingly, but im cautious cause all fed decisions get spun as bullish. But I cant see what kind of a nutjob would look at whats going on in the U.S., the U.K., and Europe, and say: "oh well the only thing we needed was a rate increase to keep this thing going."
It just seems totally irrational, not that i havent seen the market go up irrationally after fed moves, but this time it seems like youd have to be insane. Like what billionaire out there is sitting with his finger on the buy button right now cause everything in the world just seems fantastic? Rates increasing, Trump tax cuts are D.O.A. healthcare reform seems the same way, they are talking about impeachment in the MSM, Europe is debating whether Britain can even trade with them, oil is cracking.....FANG fell apart last couple days..... i just dont understand how smart money could be wildly bullish here if the fed raises rates. I cant see it, if it happens today and we rally big I will eat my note pad, it just doesnt make sense for there to be a big fed rally here.
If im wrong, and there is tons of reasons to be bullish here, please provide the counter argument id love to hear the reasons you should be bullish after this rate increase.
Kachingo Baby!! Just exited.... took my 100 shares i had short on NUGT at 35.87 for a buck!!!! Drinks on me today guys!!!! Amazing how easy that is when you put on 100 shares and just dont give a fuck.
Sigh...wish I'd seen this before I dumped my SPX spread. Or maybe not... Every time I see this thread, I think to myself it makes day trading look so easy. It takes a lot of convincing myself that I really do still suck at price action--ideally, I convince myself of this with words. The dollars are a much faster and much more compelling argument, but my wallet is heavier if I prevail with words. I do take solace in the fact that my exits of all my positions today look good even a few hours later...hedge positions notwithstanding.