Yeah that exactly the way im looking at it too "Too much downside not enough upside." We will know for sure after the fed which way its headed so why take inverted risk on the upside, if it starts grinding back up through the highs big deal you missed a couple points.
So ive been asked a couple questions on NVDA so i put up a 2 day 5 minute chart on it, and this is why its important to know your levels, and have a 5 day 5 minute chart up, but you can see how 148 was a key level yesterday, and i could see a bunch of shorts building into that thing short anticipating it was going to break 148 on that last push down, but then it sticks a higher low, puts in a big green bar, and so you know its going to cause all of those shorts a massive problem, cause they have been building into it based on the 150 high of the channel all afternoon. This kind of trade is exactly why ive got a chat room, cause you wouldnt know everyone was shorting that thing if you werent in a chat with a thousand people calling out the same trade. The thing about it too is that its such a low risk entry, take it long at 149 after the big green bar, and the higher low. with a 1 dollar stop out.
OMER is a perfect example of this where i blew it, but this is an example of the exact same price action happening on the daily as it would happen on the 2 minute chart, it gets itself in a channel, then it tries to break the lower range of the channel and it fails, then it sets a higher low, puts in a big green bar, and then it is off to the races. I had an old alert in on this thing at 16.80 so i noticed it yesterday at 16.80, but there was no catalyst and this is a weak market, plus its fairly illiquid so it could have just been manipulation, so i passed on it, but notice the move. It tries to break the bottom of the channel, holds the bottom of the channel, then big green bar, then explodes through the top and fucks the shorts. This is a very reliable pattern, whether its on a daily or a 2 minute chart. I think the reason i had the alert at 16.80 on it was cause i bought that gap up the first time after the failed breakdown, and ended up scratching it cause there was no volume on it and it didnt look like it was going to go, so i scratched it set another alert on it, and waited a little longer for the channel to keep solidifying itself.
Also if you look at what happened this morning on both NVDA and AMD they had both set up channels pre-market, and they tried to break the topside of the channel, then they broke down and broke the bottom side. So the first push up sucks in all the longs, then the push through the bottom buries them. The exact same move happened on both AMD and NVDA, I came in with a short side bias on both then saw the setup, unfortunately im a piece of shit who doesnt know what hes doing and i cant hold, lol.
Dude, I hate to keep giving you all these "likes" .... but damn man... you friggin earn em. The Super Terrific Happy Hour is awesome. I wish Eganon69 would come back and post here. He was great at this stuff too. . Hey EG! Surf's gone bro. Come on back. Its The Super Terrific Happy Hour.
LOL, well im glad you like them, im trying to do them for myself as much as anyone else to confirm my beliefs, and for something to look back at, but its nice to know its not just me engaging in a big circle jerk with MYSELF, when i could just be saving all these charts somewhere for myself, hope people arent just thinking im a pompous blow hard, talking to myself, lol.
To quote the great Maverick74.... aka Earl Haffler.... http://seinfeld.wikia.com/wiki/Earl_Haffler I don't think its a case of "bloviating". https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/looking-for-option-coach.310321/#post-4470674
btw guys i wanted to show an example of this happening on a chart where it doesnt necessarily work, so i looked back through here to see if i could find another example of this kind of channeled chart, where at a certain key point it just rejects going lower/higher. Check this one out on CIEN, my initial support area was 26.50 cause that was previous resistance. But do you see that 1 red bar right before 10:00 where it tries to go below 26.75 and just gets rejected? In my eyes, the way i read that kind of thing is someone out there with size is willing to buy it up, and take anything they can get below that level, so it tests 26.75 again a couple more times, and that happens to coincide with somewhat of a trendline, so when it bounces it at 26.75 after a couple more tries, i re-enter long, then it rejects it again at the top of the channel so i dump, and im out. But you hear me talk all the time about these "Stuff" moves, and what im talking about is it either getting stuffed in a channel, or stuffed on support/resistance, or stuffed at a round number, (.25's .50's, or .00's) where there is someone willing to buy/sell as much stock as someone is looking to feed them at certain numbers, so the stock just cant get above or below that number. This is where the journal has served as a useful tool too me, this shit is just second nature too me after almost 15 years of trading, but in real time my brain sees that going off and its just second nature, its a part of reading the tape in my eyes. In this case though, it didnt work, so i didnt add to it because the channel never broke on the top side. So instead i just took a tiny profit on it on a starter position, but normally id be looking to add if it got through the top of the channel, and then move my stop to breakeven, somewhere in the middle of the channel if the top doesnt break.