The Super Terrific Happy Hour

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Max E., May 19, 2017.

  1. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    I wonder if you have ever looked at your trades from just a statistical perspective. Something as simple as looking back at the last 20 trades, and seeing if you either took profit at 1 dollar, or cut the loss at 50 cents, would you have been profitable or not? I of course know you're analyzing every twist and turn, which does have value, especially at important levels, but when you're looking to swing trade, I really do think it has less importance.

    With you saying that these things usually do end up going the way you thought they would, I wonder if you can put some numbers to that. How much do you have to let it go against you before it turns around, and does in then hit a nice target? I mean 20 cents might be too tight, 1 dollar against you might be too generous, especially if you're only targeting $1-2, but there is probably some number that works better than others. Then if you applied that stop, how often would you be hitting the target? I have actually seen with my own stats that set targets do better. Sure you can often have a winner home run, but this happens on a much smaller win rate where you are often stopped out. I like how with set targets and stops, there are less decisions to be made.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017
    #1491     Dec 7, 2017
    Max E. likes this.
  2. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    It seems to me that you're a horse, swimming in the river, trying to figure out why fish are faster than you and wanting to race them. You're clearly designed to run on land, and although horses do swim, they never will as well as a fish.

    Adding to losers and letting a trade go from winner to loser is something I couldn't do. Its not built into my DNA either. I think what you're trying to do is to do what you do, but apply it to what they do. (hence the horse trying to swim) If you truly want to hold longer, the only thing to really do is to set a stop and target and leave the trade alone.
     
    #1492     Dec 7, 2017
    beerntrading and Max E. like this.
  3. Max E.

    Max E.

    You hit the nail on the head, i need to take numbers to get confidence, so im leaving on just 100 shares on positions now just to use it as a marker, so i can put some numbers together, the biggest thing for me is that all of my confidence comes in reading the tape, and trading news stocks, i lose that skill when i try to hold, because the tape becomes almost meaningless, so i originally thought i could just buy shit and hold it and it would work out........ obviously that failed......... now im trying to put the numbers together on it, so i can get more of a feel for it, because so much of my edge is just based on reading L2, and interpreting whats happening in the next 15-20 minutes, and just never taking losers...... also on0 how people are positioned on a news stock on that specific day, like where are the shorts in trouble where are the longs in trouble........., but that only applies for the 1 day im watching it, after that i dont have a fucking clue how to read it.
     
    #1493     Dec 7, 2017
    Gotcha likes this.
  4. Max E.

    Max E.


    Very well said, perfect summary of the problem im having, lol i love the horse analogy. :D
     
    #1494     Dec 7, 2017
    Gotcha likes this.
  5. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    Nor is there any point. I mean look at the chart you posted. Those are daily bars, and in each one of those, there would be major pivots that were being bought and and sold, or defended and rejected, and yet, on this daily chart, none of that matters.

    What interesting to me is how the big green bar where you bought, its low, is kind of where the support level was. If these were 1 minute bars and I saw price take off from some level, I would very easily use the low as a level to watch. Then when price comes down here again and double bottoms, it certainly is a nice sign of that level being defended. So for a stop, that is clearly the worst place to stop out. But once again, this is great hindsight bullshit, but my only point with all of this is that I think long term holding has to be analyzed differently than with level 2. All you can really do is say ok, big green bar seems bullish, buy anywhere, stop below the low of big green bar, target is 2 times stop, and see how well this works over a series of trades. At least that's how I think of it.

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    #1495     Dec 7, 2017
    beerntrading likes this.
  6. Max E.

    Max E.

    The thing is that all charts essentially do the same thing, so what im trying to get better at doing on swing trades is let it set the low and have its first push off the low then set a stop below that number which would represent a change in trend, so i bought that chart at 12 originally then it drifted lower every day after and i sold only because i was offside, i wouldnt do that if i was scalping, i would wait for it to set the low, then roll up once then set the stop on the other side of the low, so stop below 11.80 or whereever it was when it bottomed, but the point is to atleast let it bounce once, so you have a bottom to trade off of, and then it either starts hitting higher lows and starts trending up, or you stop out below that number.

     
    #1496     Dec 7, 2017
  7. Max E.

    Max E.

    What i mean is this, let it bounce it least once after the inevitable pullback then set the stop below the first actual bounce.
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    #1497     Dec 7, 2017
    Gotcha likes this.
  8. Gotcha

    Gotcha

    Love it! Its funny how easy trading can really be. Well, not easy, simple is a better word. Its of course difficult to act appropriately all the time, but the system need not be too complex. We are after all trying to predict the future actions of traders, which we can never know, and no amount of complex analysis will tell us what someone will do at a future date and time.
     
    #1498     Dec 7, 2017
    Max E. likes this.