The Stochastic Indicator

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jack hershey, Feb 17, 2003.

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  1. You can see at ET that most methods all involve timing.

    We are now at the point where we emphasis the chart time axis for many many things.

    the essential aspect of keeping stop logs, keeping a C&R schedule according to the market pace, using fractal pairs, formations, indicators, etc. is all done in a timing milleux.

    Naturally, we also use the signals in a way that, by prior adjustments, they are leading reather than lagging. This is because of the signals we choose and because of the way we use a pseudo calculus on ststisically derived indicators.

    By not predicting but using an orthagonal concept to predicting ( "anticipation") on a matrix where flaws block potential paths, e get to a place where our monitoring leads the market movement.

    We place market tools at all times to allow the market to move to them and we also use market orders to affect keeping us on the "right" side of the market at all times.

    No one on ET can remain is an intellectual position for a long time that advocates onlt one way of doing anything. There are always many ways.

    I have been overlaying levels of stuff on the basics. Because it is necessary to be successful from the start, I consider this as a learning strategy that exceeds others because it makes people rich sooner and faster and minimizes the capital required to get started.

    I recommend for any apporach that people use that they learn to do wash trades along side a good low risk money making simple approach. The approach, above all should keep the person out of the market at all times when the initial money making approach does not apply...

    Getting rich is a pervasive aspect of our culture. I am approaching getting rich from a very clean systemmatic way. Working through levels of skill and making a person more elligible to trade based upon successes is a self policing low risk strategy.

    People who do otherwise everely penalize their families and themselves. This is not a "myway or the hiway" statement. what it says is that there is a path that simultaneously cleans up garbage, minimizes risk, and replaces myths with self proven fundamentals that apply to the system in use (the market).

    Let me clarify how this works as a model by synthesis. There are not forks in the road. we are building a sphere starting at the center. The universe we are headed towards gives us a larger and larger sphere where by everything in the sphere has continuing application and we are not just composing a surface of a sphere on which to operate. andd it is a dynamic model that has a fluidity that allows us to always be at the right place at theright time.

    As you get richer, you can play more. The curve is simply a learning curve that I try to optimize. The uppermost level is unknown to me. I have been on the curve for 47 plus years and I am self taught and my ability to replicate this stuff in as wide a universe of persons is a circumstance that is important to me to understand. Thus I read many many threads here and I track an assortment of people. ET is a splendid place to find out why people can't make money, why people get stuck, why people carry garbage and myths and why and how people succeed quite nicely.

    I sometimes do respond to people in other threads who are at neat turning points in their lives. All people have the potential to be rich. All people can do it in the markets.

    Walter is a fork in the road type person and as such he says dont do...........if you want to achieve........... The sphere doesn't have forks like walter does. Walter has experienced me responding to another person's whatever with a simple alternative for making so much money. I also worked with others where they were to support their progress.

    Now this is different. I am laying out the whole nine yards here. where we wind up is with two software packages that handle the equities markets and the futures commodity indexes. Like any lawyer would, and I am ot a practicing lawyer, I have the software design done and I use it manually. The equities is done in C language and made money at a rate that is calculated from a 6 months real money trading log and as done by someone other than me using it. The software for the commodities is on paper and I use it manually. I have a wall like a storey board thing where it resides on 7 levels of detail.

    I continually try to connect to get the stuff I have hardened up into a give away status.

    To get it (software) done is like when I asked here for someone to give me text for the journal that I could slip in belatedly to keep the journal clean. I asked for this after I got the journal straightened out by using my powers here to "fix" it. I am taking several people here through some one on one education as a way to upgrade their existance. You can see they either learn what I want them to or they keep getting the lesson and they will get additional lessons too.

    The only way to get a tranferable method done is to learn from the potential users continually. I am getting that done as e go along. I have piles of paper here now that are edited and I do have a way to get it into the journal.

    When I do and it is posted, then the people here can use it as a reference building plock for the process they have acheived on their way to being rich.

    I am sure new people will show up and skip along and have repeated difficulties. everyone is helping others out now and that will continue ad nauseum, fortunately.

    This post is to be helpful to you in that it explains the modus as a synthesis and not a fork in the road thing. What this stuff does is make a support system for any method. You pick and choose to add to what you have. Gradually what evolves is something that is quite comprehensicve and operates in a KISS mode. The whole key is going through the iterative process.

    People do think that you get a thing that makes money and then you do it. This is a Have, Do, Be orientation. The reality is that you simply BE. Once you decide to be a millionaire, you are one but it has not manifested as yet. This is the BE'ing. The Do'ing is a process of transition. This is where you make yourself into a millionaire. To find out if a person is a millionaire is not taking a look at a FS or a P/L. It is actually looking at the process the person has been through. To get to HAVE, you DO first.

    little girls want to be ballerinas. so the get tutus and go to class and but the stuff in the attic. They are in the HAVE, DO, BE orientation. They say I was a ballerina when I was a little girl. Berishnikov went the other way BE DO HAVE. He was a ballerina from day one. I know guys have a different name.

    I am processing in ET a bunch of millionaires. when i sit around with millionaires who have been fully processed and have their manifestations all around them, it is delightful. They all have one thing in common. They use their professional skills to help others out.

    Tuck a little note in a place that is a safe place. Write it out. Say it to affirm it and lets move on. BE DO HAVE.
     
    #961     Jul 8, 2003
  2. Great post.

    It is very important for everyone to read this carefully.

    Today was not a day that mostly anyone could trade.

    when there is no trading there is no trading. By searching and looking very carefully for clues you come to the proper conclusions. The volume just wasn't there to maintain a market. There was as usual a OHLC data and it was just so slow and lateral. We are in a summer condition here and it follows a weekend holiday as well.


    what makes this post so great is how the poster is looking at the market thoroughly and rationally and not "doing" for the sake of "doing". This is excellent stuff here.

    the person is making a thorough effort and stay flat. Flat is the place to be and he is doing it as he "seeks" a greater sensitivity. As the level of sensitivity is recognized, then what is called "rough" is just the practical matter of going through a day and not trading because there was no oppotunity. It is "rough" to not be able to trade.

    What happened clearly was no money was lost in a market that was not tradable. You cannot imagine what a strong success it is to be in a place where you "see" this stuff and just say "the potential of the market is zero today" and say it at the end of the day.

    Well done.

    oddiduro slip a few charts up there for the next few days so we can see what you see.
     
    #962     Jul 8, 2003
  3. Thank you for telling why I didn't make any money today after making 9 points yesterday. Lateral trends just kill me, and I have yet to find a system that these sideways days just don't chew up.

    The chart I have attached is using your settings for the Macd and Stochastics. The trendline on the volume indicator is set for 5000 on the 5 min chart.

    The painted bars on the chart show where stocastics has risen above 75 or fallen below 25.

    The Rockets indicator is simply the MACD difference with the MACD lines removed, since it is the difference that we actually trade on.

    I understand clearly the channels, so is a failed rocket simply when price fails to cross the channel? Or is it when Stocastics falls out of the 75 or above the 25 zones? I got it mixed up somewhere out there.

    I see better now that when price fails to cross the channel, then we need to get out when price breaks the right side of the channel.

    Then the sloloming begins, and this is where I get hung up. Do I switch to the 1 minute chart at this point and look for rockets, or do look at lateral trend channel parameters on the 5 min and trade them with the 1 minute?

    Thanks:)
     
    #963     Jul 9, 2003
  4. Some little input to your info here.

    I would suggest to you that you display the stochastics. Why? Because entwining is an important element for rockets... which you cannot see with your TS programmed bars. Also with the MACD an important thing is to know how far away the MACD lines are from the signalline.. with only the histogramm on the display you are not able to get that information. At least for me entwining so far seems to be a key element combined with 123 for rockets.

    sunseeker
     
    #964     Jul 9, 2003
  5. Okay, here is a corrected chart.
     
    #965     Jul 9, 2003

  6. Here is yestarday afternoons chart. THere is a about 2 hours of slaloming with a 25 minute interval for every reverse. Following slaloming was a pace flaw, then centering, then BO into the rocket long. I had done most things correctly trading only from the 5 minute. I did use the 1 min for the BO out of the centering.
    Hope this helps a little.

    I have problems not being able to see if a stall in a push in price after centering is a reversal or continuation. Usually if i wait and its a reversal, i lose like 5 cents. I think i should be waiting though to verify the reversal as continuation can give you a lot more money like yestardays afternoon rocket; i mistakenly got out on the stall after intitial BO.


    jc
     
    #966     Jul 9, 2003
  7. manz66

    manz66

    To increase your sentivity in trading, originally Mr. Hershey proposed to use two more parameters in stoch, and they are-
    (5, 2, 3), (10, 2, 3), plus the original (14, 1, 3). When all are pointing the same plus macd (5, 13, 6) confirmations with volume; you can go ahead into trade.

    Trading is still an art. Wash trading or small loss is more important to grasp than winning. Finally, after rocket and slalom, you should able to do reversal from fail rocket. Hope, this help to further your success in trading world.
     
    #967     Jul 9, 2003
  8. This is something I'm sure if it is so. Because in one of the last posts of Mr. Hershey he stated that the 1413Stoch alone is good enough for rockets... but if there are further infos on that I will listen closely.

    I'm in a srtong rocket downward Time: 10:59

    I'm working with ES mini currently but I will move to the Euro Stoxx 50 Future in the next weeks with Jacks Method to see how it does in other markets.
     
    #968     Jul 9, 2003
  9. manz66,

    I appreciate your help here. I was wondering if i may ask you a few questions regarding what you said above.

    You say that after you have slaloming and rockets down, you should proceed to failed rocket reversals. I have often seen that failed rocket reversals would make a lot of money. I find though that i sometimes try to anticapte the failed rocket before it actaully fails and do not take the initial rocket signal; this only happens if we already had at least 1 failed rocket for the day becasue i think after 1 faield rocket the market is more prone to more failed rockets. This thinking is probably wrong though.

    Do you take every rocket signal or do you know when a rocket is gonna fail so you only take the reversal trade? Since i have a hard time knowing if a rocket is gonna fail, my guess would be to take every rocket signal and only reverse when it fails.

    Also, at what point do you know the rocket has failed(what are your flaws) and time to take a reverse, divergence of the fast line and slow line with fast going through 80 or 20?

    Also, once the fialed rocket goes your way, what is the next part of the sequence? do you look for continuation and a rocket or do you look to get out when the stoch hits 50% line?

    yesterday, i got short on a failed rocket reverse but was lost because i did not know the following branches of the tree for the failed rocket reverse.

    Thnks in advance,

    jc
     
    #969     Jul 9, 2003
  10. dawg

    dawg

    here is my 2 cents on failed rocket and how i played it today....

    quick side comment: at some point you will be getting into trades before they become rockets. for ex:good macd hist reading +.40 and stoch crosses 50...so in essence you will be taking every rocket b/c you are already in the trade.
    if you are not there yet i would recommend taking every rocket...get the method down and and the points will come.

    i always reverse out of failed rocket.

    this morning i was long from 996.00 and it moves into rocket territory stalls sideways and leaves the rocket zone....it made no upward price movement while in the rocket zone, so i will reverse on the failure

    so the question becomes where/when do you reverse...there isn't one correct spot...you can wait for the macd xo...chart formation b/d...vol pickup on the downside. i got short at 1007.50.

    so now you are short....what can happen...could be a slow up trend...sideways...or downtrend...the next pivot area is the 50% stoch...pt 2-3 traverse.

    today that was 1005 area...right where we bounced/sideways...just monitor the action here don't panic...is vol drying..vol increasing upwards...let the bars close and monitor.

    quick head fake up and mkt rolls over...check out the 10:45 readings s(20,36) -0.65 macd hist...great reading for our short...turns into a rocket...you get price/vol spike at 10:55 (this is where i exited at 1000.50)

    rocket is still there...forms a bear flag which b/d into anothe price/vol spike and here we get a 5m macd divg...trend over/mkt bottom...look to reverse if still short on the rocket ending.

    here is how i look at it:

    rocket fails-->macd xo-->crosses 50-->rocket

    hope this helps. this is how i played it.
     
    #970     Jul 9, 2003
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