I posted this during the am as a realtime narrative: 09:45est centering @1001 bracket in @ 1002.1 stall dip Failure FBP Reverse on BO down 1006.2 s 1006.2 ts 5 min 4 bars back @ H val + 1 tick. go to tape on 5 min then 15 min exit as "continuation" mkt exit 997.2 enter L 998.1 @ 11:31 wash 999.0 I can see from the comments by others it was not easy to follow. so the details are: I trade by entering after sync with a bracket.. The bracket is based on the centering of the sync. Centering value for me was 1001.0 ovr night the market moved and nitro took on a 90's trade. That overnight stuff, was visible and let us know the open would show as a gap for market hours on the ES. I commented that It would be fun to go through the 1000 today before the open. the long side of my bracket was 1002.1 where I used the centering of 10001.0. nitro spells out the quarters in his post on ES. I do not I just list the number of quarters. .0 is none, .1 is .25 and .2 is .50 .3 is .75. I suggested elaswhere before the open that the market was in "change" for the open. This means I use a reversal strategy instead of just no linkage between trades as entry/ exit trades. However my bracket on "change" status takes me in I am going to reserse out and see if I can get to a trend where I trade "continuation". I know this is not for everyone and I do expect the type of stuff I get from TM, sim, okiwon, pruity etc. Usually i do not trade real time but today I thought sim might (I was wrong) and I thought he would post a chart or graph. (he didn't) Under "change" I log formations from the 1 min. There were two prior to the reversal: a stall (full box) and a dip. They were 5 min plus. This is fast pace market lingo. By seeing this and noting my stop log. I am sort of prepared to ace the eversal and ride it into a "continuation" type market operating point. I posted a chart of this phase un annotated cause i was posting in real time. See below After the dip we get into flaws. I noted that I was in a failure modus. Thr formation that emerged was a FBP. This is nice because I want to reverse out of a long. If there was no failure ,etc, then I would be a little flakey. Flakey means that the market is sort of loose and noisey. not a problem but it is a setting where you look for clues harder. FBP lets me know I just have to wait for it to end and at market reverse. Double contracts and just roll. you will feel good during this interval. Wrapping up profits. Being in the groove. and seeing that you will be nailing a trend in continuation mode. Thr fact is that you see the morning is playing out with two trades and there will be an exit. So 1006.2 is the deal it turns out. Out with profit and in short. There is a trend "continuation dictates an exit. I am out at 997.2. as the time passes I do my thing. My picture is that the 1000 value is there out in front of me. While it's midday so to speak and I am cycling through dumping tons of equities for going to cash for 3 weeks I still am looking at taking cash as intrady peaks of a bunch of stuff. I am not perfectly neutrally biased. at 11:31 I go L price turns out to be 998.1 one VDU no slalom room. exit as a wash price turns out to be 999.0 I didn't go through 1000 as a long. And I had to go to work pronto cause the fade has started on equities which I am leaving. nitro apparently has a chat group for classy people like simtrader etc. I am sorry we missed sim's trade today but he found a BO and made 4 points with it before 10:15 he says. I hope he does a chart. I think I got 4 points for 200 bucks/contract. You can say this isn't what I told beginners Ice bergers of occassional slalomers. But some of you that I am in touch with should find this as familiar. There is no reason while most people can't move into this operating mode easily. The reason we spend all the prep time to get there is because you need to get to an even keel mentally and emotionally before you groove as an expert. Making easy money gets you there. any beginner can do better than simtrader. The simple reason is that you are not overwrought and emotionally shot. You are just using one chart. A couple of indicator signals and not comparing apples and oranges from several continents. Several have said that beginners ar right on the brink of doing reversals into new trends forming. They let a big cat out of the bag. to get there i had to make very very very sure I have put the cure in for early exits or they wind up scared shitless like simtrader is. Look at bobcathy after vacation posts. If I do not cure the crap caused by fear and manifesting as early exits, you cannot do reversals. What happens with reversals is that you more than double your daily performance. If you are not emotionally up beat and collected, you are screwed. Some people here are going through having to quit and drop out because they cannot afford either not making support money or they are broke. This absurd self induced perssure is a mess to deal with. Read the bravado closely to see the level of confidence that is lacking. Empathy doesn't cut it. Once we move through two or three doubling of improvement in money velocity, then we will pick up the pace by going to a KISS level operation. I will be away in Wash DC, VA , PA, NY, RPI reunion, Tanglewood opening and back to eastern LI. up through the 20th. We are going to be really ploughing furrows after labor day. please get the myths out of your operations.
Just looking forward to AFTER labor day. On friday morning, i entered on the 1 min as the rocket appeared, and once it was not a wash, sat back on the 5 min until the fast line touched the 80. As this happened i went back to the 1 min to watch what was going on. i exited as the 1 min consolidation broke down at 10:24. I did not reverse because i feel like their wasn't enough volume dry up on the 1 min to warrant a reversal(change). Also, the 5 min volume was steadily declining as price was decreasing which led me to wait to see what will happen when dry up occurs. Jack, would you have reversed at this point or waited for volume dry up to see if it would be uptrend continuation or down trend continuation. 10:47 seemed to me to be the vdu on the 5 and 1 min concurrently. I bracketed that entry and got long but after the failure in volume i got out for a wash. another volume dry up occurred at 10:58 (usually when i notice a bunch of dry ups very close to another, i lose money trying to play the bo). I decided to give it another try and bracketed and ended up short at 11:02. this ended up not forming a bo failure. I then figured that my entry was the point 3. Therefore, i created channels using points 1,2,3 that came from the corresponding times of 10:19, 10:40, 10:55. I then exited on the other side of the channel at 11:10 looking for a slalom trade and also got long at the same time. Jack, is this what you would have done our would you have waited to see if it turned into a rocket? This is where things got fuzzy and i somehow took a 10 cent loss trying to slalom long. the market broke the trend channels and turned into a rocket so i decided to get short on the next 1 min volume dry up. this occurred at 11:28. i got short and it broke up on me for another 25 cent loss. Looking in retrospect, i should have bracketed that entry. what really hurt was that when it did break, i held onto it because it looked like congestion so i thought i could get out when the price came back down(i know i should not think like this). eventually my pain tolerance was too much and i exited for the 25 cent loss. After these two losses, i was mad because i was flat for the day on a day in which a lot of money was out there. For the rest of the day i did not trade jacks strategy cause i was neg for the day so i went back to scalping nasdaq stocks(my bread and butter). jack, what would you have done during this congestion? did you play the break out back down into downward trend continuation? Ultimatey, in retrospect, instead of trying to slalom, i should have stayed short unitil 1:35 when price broke up out of the trend channel on increasing volume after a vdu and reversed long at the same time. if i would have gotton long here though i would have been very cautious cause the volume on the 5 min was neither increasing or decreasing. it was more of a steady volume(stall). I think this indicates a weak trend. To me, midday trends f me up every time. i am usually in the groove from 9:45 to 11:15 until the market throws me a curve ball which usually happens on non sustaining volume. I end up seeing most of the formations jack is talking about during this time and don't know quite what too do(stay short, stay long, get out). this is when losses seem to add up. damn, i wish i was at an expert level already When the midday is bad i am also less inclined to take afternoon rockets due to the fact that i have to make up losses from the midday. although a lot of great rockets occur in the afternoon. i did notice though that the end of afternoon long uptrend ended on volume dry up at 2:25. anyway, i hope jack can add comments to where i am and lead me to where i want to be. I feel like jack has a very funny sense of humor because he realizes that he can only show the way. he puts the next level right under our noses but yet puts it far enough away that we have to reach recognition ourselves. thnx in advance. sorry that my post is soo fragmented. I was not an english major and one thought just led to another. j
Thu Two washes in the morning. Day 0.00 Fri #1 long rocket after synch 9:50 long 1002.50 9:54 sell 1000.50 3rd lower high on 1m chart. 1 min too early it turned out; rocket signal still on. -2.00 #2 reentry 9:56 long 1002.50 10:15 sell 1008.00 away side of channel -> MACD x. Reverse. +5.50 #3 MACD reversal -> short rocket 10:15 short 1008.00 10:31 cover 1004.00 stall at 1st half hour congestion +4.00 #4 rocket reentry 11:01 short 1003.00 11:31 cover 998.00 MACD x -> rocket failure -> channel BO +5.00 A kick-ass day. Day +12.50 Week +14.50
Jack, what do you mean by VDU -> no slalom room? Did you exit on the following 1m bar after if failed to break 1000.00? Thanks.
Indicators lag and respond to the market. If you use an indicator to trade you are waiting for a signal and then lagging the market on your entry and your exit. A trader will have more success if he watches the market, anticipates, enters the trade and controls any errors with stop losses.
Jack, i am confused about the difference between a stall and hitch, and what is the difference in the sequence following a stall and hitch. From what i understand, a stall is a bunch of volume bars with the same length place next to eachother with the next following volume greater than the stall length. I think a hitch the same thing as a stall but what follows the equal volume bars is a decreasing bar in volume (dip?) after the stall. The dip might refer to the price instead of volume. I am not sure of which one though. I think i may know the sequence of a stall. This is my interpretation. if the stall was 2 bars, then 4 bars after the inital stall bar will bring a point2. I dont know what the sequence for a hitch is though. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Other approaches. If you are an expert you look for the VDU; see the carrots (V's). When they occur you jump on the BO from the VDU bar. The entry is market and is usually close to the BO on prior bar. It you get into a failure to BO, as an intermediate or expert you simply wash out. If you are able to slalom, and it is a failure to BO, then you slalom by immediate reversal (tack into the trend) and take it from there." I somewhat understand BO and BO failures but I am not sure when you say "take it from there". Am i suppost to hold for a wash to see if creates a new points 1,2,3 and slalom or wait to see if it turns into a rocket. At some point the price action gets to a place that if it continued it would turn into a rocket, but if it bounces off of the support or resistance, it will turn into a slalom. on friday my short that i took at 11:00 hit the other side of the trend channel at 11:10, and i exited and tried to slalom toward the other side of the channel. It ended up turning into rocket. thnx. j
Yes...I agree indicators themselves do lag the market. Also...regardless... if your using indicators or price action only method... both are lagging the price when it comes to exit/entry signals. For example...a price action only trader (no indicators) that's waiting for a Long signal at a key support level...needs to wait for confirmation that its a buy signal... thus, via that waiting process (seconds or more)...there is a lag. What I'm saying is this...your statement is very general. Beginners traders that use indicators are trading the indicator and traders that are struggling with indicators are trading the indicator. Experience traders or successful traders that use indicators as a hint (indicator) to prepare... for price action to confirm entry/exit signals. Experience traders or successful traders that are price action only must also wait for confirmation for entry/exit signals. Beginner or struggling price action only traders usually don't wait for confirmation... no lag. Successful traders using indicators have no advantage over successful traders that use price action only methods nor vice versa... other than a natural reaction via a perception that they do because one worked for them better than the other did. Simply... There are successful indicator traders out there that make more money in comparison to when they used price action only methods. There are successful price action only traders out there that make more money in comparison to when they used indicators... both methods can be used with controls any errors with stop losses good trade management. Although you implied it can only be done with one and not the other. P.S. I use both methods and I don't see one having an advantage over the other... both methods have their advantages and disadvantages (strengths and weakness). NihabaAshi
vorzo. Can you explain what you mean by "away side of channel"? Thanks. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fri #1 long rocket after synch 9:50 long 1002.50 9:54 sell 1000.50 3rd lower high on 1m chart. 1 min too early it turned out; rocket signal still on. -2.00 #2 reentry 9:56 long 1002.50 10:15 sell 1008.00 away side of channel -> MACD x. Reverse. +5.50
Left side or in-the-money side of channel. Jack's wording, I use it for simplicity. One trade today: #1 short rocket -> lod bk 10:17 short 979.75 10:51 cover 976.75 MACD x -> channel BO. Rocket was still on but up volume was picking up. Day +3.00
NihabaAshi, That was a terrific post you just offered up. It's posts like that make this board worthwhile. Just thought I'd let you know that. Regards. chaos