Link:http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=author:pjones%40yahoo.com+ > It would seem to me that bracketing a thinner market such as the DJ > might result in your stops get picked off occasionally on false > breakouts engineered by locals. Has this ever been a problem for you? I get picked off several times a week...always, ugh, always because of my impatience. I am in a stupid mindset where I always think things are moving faster than they are. (My hobby is glider acrobats.) That often is the cause of the market reaching to me and turning a stop into a market order. If I'm doubling then usually I'm just in earlier and the results are moot. I know my broker loves the market (the floor) more than me...lol but I resist the idea that engineering is going on for chump change compared to the profits in the main events. > > I watch the overnight shifts get > > cleaned out and have a preset spread for my futures index (DJ9H) to >attain relative to INDU as they get the that spread (20-30 points) >then I know they are going to start to move together. > Does this preset spread(20-30 points) take into account the daily > shrinkage of the premium number? It is a slow migration actually and >there is also an over lay of the intermediate term trend of the market >as a whole. so i was a little cavalier in my comment. but there is a >spread that shows up; its value is there day to day and you will actually see the two indicators slip into place... then there is the power you gain in analysis once you are calibrated...it is then you see the lag of the futures index and you can use it on a secondary level to judge the strength of the significant trend of the day. I am a little fractal here. I try to minimize my number of trades in a day primarily because of the emotional level that that achieves for me. i don't really know what a loose goose is but I prefer being one rather than a hyped humming bird. So I try to use the spread oscillation (it ranges) to keep me connected to the slowest trend of the possible trends on the table. If the rate of movement picks up I watch the spread like a hawk to pick off the end of a leg. By overriding a working stop with a phone call and grabbing a bounce with a double. If it is the usual situation I then go to a short bar screen and check the drop off in volume..expect a congestion pop out of the bounce on a phone call. And wait for the ensuing sequence where i graphically determine my bracket back in after it centers. > > > Up to that point the futures > > index is a maverick as far as I am concerned. FYI for the last two days the sync occurred at about 7:50 MST (9:50EST) or about twenty minutes into the day. From that point on they remain in sync. As the spread varies it becomes a powerful indicator of the lag in the DJ9H or SPOOS. the market takes the trade on for me as soon as it hits one of the two bracket stops I have in and the other is my first trailing stop. i note in a column next to my working stops the next ones I will be setting from a line chart I read continually. Once I write it down I will use it when I need to tighten my stop as the trend continues. As soon as i can establish trend in each of three separate concurrent ways, I go mostly on the confirmation of the the three ways. right now I am on my fifth trade for the day. One loosing ( a scratch out in congestion). this is as a consequence of lateral motion that runs into a trend slope line to the right of my trend I use a moving linear regression line to try to accomplish this, but it is not always on the right side(as opposed to left side) of the trend. > Is there a better way? > two ways to get the regression to tip you off. make a pinwheel of three regression lines where their ratio of period is 4:2:1. the right sides of the lines are always flush on "now" don't offset them to have them rotate on their half lengths. you are really in a good place with regression. Very quickly you will begin to observe the rotation of the pinwheel is a tip off for the reversal of trend. and you will see easily when you are in congestion: they will all swep into a "flat" ahead of time. You can also get a look at the "centering value" to see what the possible bracket reentry might be. i ease people into day trading on three successive levels of using slopes to set stops. Predicting the market is absolute bullshit as you have probably gathered from my comments. But anticipation is thr name of the game. the pinwheel will really give you a kick. But try this too. i tried to get Mark to consider making nodes of market conditions by pairing formation and slope characterizations then linking them. It is a blast to do it. Several evolutions will occur. what shows up finally is a map that can be operated upon by using Alexander's method (lol.. some of the second WW vets are going to see how old i am here...it is a technique to establish how to fight a war with the least communications...see saving priv Ryan). Okay map time. what you discover is that different conditions occur most frequently according to the velocity of the trading.. Viola. Always know the period of the velocity of the trading. I got these periodicities by analyzing. Punch line: you have to set your slope indicators always to the right of the chart for the market far enough so to intercept them only when the natural volatility won't let them be intercepted. Just keep in mind for a while that it is possible. Envision your goal is to use slopes as trend triggers (to get out..and know if it is a reversal to get into or not get into). The first priority is getting stoped right up there on a long or right down there on a short and not being too close to get faked out. I use a phantom bar that is based on the two most recent bars. and I vary the bar duration according to the periodicity the market is operating in. Then I have that bar out ahead of the current bar showing me where to set the slope line to hit the bar end. how I construct the bar is the absolute nuts. it turns upside down (changes color for me so I know it happened and it tells me a reversal is coming). people who use it really look at me funny when i meet them...lol. To be more relaxed during the day I often use a longer duration of periodicity than the market is dictating to me. And even more humourous I run two of the phantoms where they are staggered by half of the periodicity that I am using and i use slightly different colors. From a cold start it takes about three days to adapt to this stuff and after that whoever their broker is, he wants to get on a plane and find out how they know what is going on. Oh the other great value of this stuff is that if I am out I then use it as my rentry brackets for taking on trades. the scalpers factor themselves into the values automatically as well.
link: http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=author:pjones%40yahoo.com+ '> > i always have my bracket reentry settings developed with a phantom of the market out thirty minutes. and i do this with two series of phantoms offset by fifteen minutes. i try to set up for an accumulation of points over the day on accounts that i trade sequentially to not crap up the market action. > > Jack, crap up the market action? Please explain. oh this is an issue when you put on trades. causes floor whiplash. Just like i woludnt trade a stock with a big float since it lacks the volatility to aqppreciate capital, i wouldn't consider trading a futures index that is too high in average volume and priced in a range that is relatively narrow. So i stay out of the way of the big guys and i am the size frog that is appropriate for my pond. i take a lot of heat on this and i am easily recognizable as a chicken in this regard. So be it. i prefer lots of bags of chicken feed delivered at the capacity of the country road I live on.. > > This response has a punch line. The scalpers action is best seen by comparing line charts DJ9H and INDU. when they are foling around I back off my stops (or limits) on the side they are playing. that is mostly noise in the system once you get it tuned to listen to. > > > stuff is on their minds as well as the volume of trading. I am very bias > > in the volume area. > > The S&P futures seem to lead everything out there. I will have to check out Jack's comment about the INDU. The only thing that I have found that moves concurrently is surges in upvol or downvol. Okay this is excellent. switch to the derivative of the volume. go to the rate of change of volume. first look for sign changes, then go to a second derivative to pick off the max's and min's of the volume rate of change. Tha amplitude of the actual volume is not as important as its delta or change. this is equivalent to how floor traders use the change in noise level of trading to pick off trends..ask any wizzard or anytrader who retired from the floor and tried to go PC. Hi Jack, Thanks for the great comments. You've given me alot to think about. I will let my tortoise-like mind work on them for awhile longer. I do have a few comments. Please see below. Jack Hershey wrote: > > > Up to that point the futures > > > index is a maverick as far as I am concerned. FYI for the last two days the sync occurred at about 7:50 MST (9:50EST) or about twenty minutes into the day. From that point on they remain in sync. As the spread varies it becomes a powerful indicator of the lag in the DJ9H or SPOOS. OK. Up to this point my assumption has been that the futures (dj & sp) lead most everything. Your comment got me thinking that it is possible that they both lead and lag the index depending upon with side of the trend the divergence of the spread occurs. Alright, that's as far as I got with that one so far. I watch the INDU if I am in a trade. Actually before the market opens, I place an alarm at +45 and -45 for the Dow and if I happen to get into a S&P trade and hear the alarm go off for the Dow, I get out of my trade because it seems soon after the S&P makes a quick change in trend. I believe at +/- 50 points, computerized program trading stops which definitely alters the trading in the Spoos. After I get out, many times I can get back into the trade after this mini correction at better prices'. Oat
manz, I think Jack has simplify most of concepts that mention above, i.e. he didn't mention "pinwheel of three regression lines" any more.
May 14 Wednesday 9:46 waiting to short if 9:40 bar is broken down. #1 s943.75 at 9:48 rocket failure 5min macd xo - turned into rocket c937.50 at 10:38 5 1/4 #2 s936.50 at10:56 - continuation of morning trend possibly. stop at trendline, need to see vol pick up. c937.50 at 11:08 -1 #3 s939.50 1:48 rocket failure stop at 1min trendline 1:59 stop moved to break even 2:00 c939.00 2:04 Nearing the 5min uptrend line, with a slight break 1min downtrend line. Will watch for a short rocket after slow 5min uptrend line is broken. +1/2 #4 s937.00 at 2.12 stop at 1min trendline thinkin about washing this 2:17, need more vol. c938.25 at 2:19 -1 1/4 3 1/2 for the day 8 1/4 so far for the week
May 15 Thursday Not a very good day for me. Please excuse the free form prose...just me talking to myself. #1 s942.75 9:48 c944.25 9:53 -1 1/2 When playing rocket failures, you want the 5min Macd to cross first then short the low of the bar. Don't guess. #2 b947.25 stop at trendline at 9:57 s946.50 stopped out at last 5min low and trendline. Probably only looking for point 3, as the pullback is on light vol. -3/4 #3 s943.75 10:20 somewhat of a rocket failure play. Waited for 5min Macd to cross down then short on the low of the next bar. Stop at trendline 1min chart. c944.00 10:30 - 1/4 #4 s941.25 at 10:43 Rocket, stop at 1min trendline c941.25 at 10:56 0 1:30, missed this rocket But notice the shakeout when the Phili Fed Index-survey came out, better than expected. then there was the steady climb into the afternoon. #5 b order in at 946.25 at 2:24 possible continuation of slow trend. b946.25 executed at 2:25 stop at slow trend line or no follow through soon. s945.25 at 2:32 out at slow trendline break. -1 Stopping for the day. not making good decisions. -3 1/2 for the day How'd you guys do today? Dawg, Vorzo?
Yesterday - missed the morning short rocket, then did a couple washes in CCC. Day +0.25 Today Tough day for me too. The 1m chart did me in - was watching it too often. Was also tired and distracted - sould've stayed out altogether. #1 long rocket 10:01 long 947.50 10:11 sell 945.00 rocket failure -> MACD x. Very late exit, lousy execution. -2.50 #2 MACD reversal -> not right away, cost me 0.50 10:12 short 944.50 10:17 cover 945.00 no other reason but vol picking up to the upside on 1m chart. Ugh. -0.50 #3 short rocket 10:34 short 943.50 10:57 cover 941.00 failure to traverse -> channel BO -> reversal into CCC? +2.50 #4 reversal 10:57 long 941.00 11:14 sell 941.50 rocket reentry +0.50 #5 long rocket 11:47 long 943.50 11:57 sell 941.75 rocket failure, down vol picking up -1.75 Didn't know about report at noon. At this point called it a day as I was not thinking straight anymore - I passed on the short rocket. Way too many trades. Day -1.75 Week +7.25
vorzo, if you don't have briefing this is a good free page to check every a.m. for the days reports of significance.
May 16 Friday #1 b948.25 at 9:48 Had buy order in for the pullback. s947.25 at 9:52 Thought there was a rocket forming, strong vol on up bar. I was wrong. -1 #2 s943.00 at 10:03 short rocket c939.75 at 10:39 5min macd trying to crossover. broke second 1min trendline so got out when the high of 10:25 bar was broken. +3 1/4 I'm using the 1min trendline as a general gauge of the people contrary to my position. If the 1min is broken on strong vol then I'll get out. If on light vol, I'll give more leeway, then, if it continues in my direction, I'll draw a new 1min trendline. This was broken on light volume both times, so the first time I stayed in. The second time, there were more factors. Still looking for #3 as the light vol suggests that the pullback is not a trend reversal. Lunch.... No afternoon trades. +2 1/4 for the day +7 1/4 for the week