Dawg, after looking at your chart I figured out why we don't jive on the signals. I have my 5 min. set to start at 7:00 a.m. , it looks like yours is set at 9:30. I set mine early so that any a.m. gaps don't overly influence the indicators. Don't know if that is good methodology or not. Any way, now I know why you did when you did it.
cool. always a little paranoid that my indicators are screwy and i am trading off some broken squiggly line.
This will fill in some interconnections. The point 1,2,3 will allow you to see to hang in longer in the snse that you can take a tend to daily resistance every day. The same is true for support. By using right lines all the time you know whether you are heading for either support or resistance. If the market is flat, (Low absolute indicator values (can't use relative ones for this)), then you go to slaloming on MACD and volume combo. You can see when, yesterday the end effects started. This is a time of day to hang it up when you are riding either support or ressitance cause the volume has to be there to drive it. If the volume is driving then there is just a one direction drift. The War stuff is a messy thing to have overlaying this. a talking head who is "orchestrating" can screw up because he outsmarts himself. This can hammer things.
It is not good. The reason is everyone else doesn't think up that stuff. Since they don't they are all getting signals you don't get because you erased them. The giant large reason is the voume that is working in the 7:00 onward interval. It is zip and the market is not really functional relative to when the cash market is open. That is two points combined cash market and pre open volume magnitude limitation. This combo more strongly wrecks the open synch than setting your charts to just reflect the cash/futures concurrent operations. For 16:00 plus there is a continuation of end effects. I marked up a NQ chart where I noted end effects for both volume and price. You can see the last volume run up was weak and the price approaching resistance just prior to end effects. The killer thing for making money is to get the day straight. A lot of baggage and garbage is usually there when a person wakes up. While coffee they say helps heighten whatever, the object is to get a handle. The reps of the 11th 14 and 18th give us a clue on what is prevalent. Also flat absolute values tell the other story. You have the gap land as well and it's retrace or not retrace that is the question type stuff. I have watched the DJXX from 8:20 on down to 9:30. If it is of any value it is just this. You get to learn how to ace scalpers setting up bracket entries. The sub theme is learning to get the "failure to BO theme" out of the way and learn slaloming. These things all fit into the "eliminating whiplash once and for all theme. NB: All of this begins to show us how set ups affect backtesting. Have you noted which of the three people was using Ema and which one (only one) was using SMA on their stuff. the person who just backtested longs and puled down a K/mo is doing the better set ups for back testing. That run comes up like rockets and washes sort of. A K/mo give you additional contracts at a nice clip for skill development to get ready for intermediate. The point 1,2,3 is a good hair trigger buster. The 75/25 over 80/20 gives you an attitude ajustment that allows you to transition to: "If it's entwined I'll cheat and hold" phase of cheating. This is a cool step for getting into KISS as well. I am glad to see alot of people moving out of the black and white world. After a good set of greys you all get to technicoclor.
Jack, The "watch out label" at the stoch 50% line on your chart of the NQ you posted in your last post....... why "watch out" there?. The oly signifignce was the fast line was spread far apart from the signal line. Michael B.
I guess I put the elipse in there is such a way to over emphasize. It is the original pt2 sort of so a person can get disoriented. The bar (candlestick) is on that could be significant because of the volume returning to a higher value and the fact that the "long" trend was setting up. This happens at a momment when the Stoc has a choice of riding the 50% or continuing to the 80% and getting on with the trend. In the entry sequence where people have their risk regime in play by picking just how many entry signals that they wait through before taking on the trade, this bar turns out to be one that causes concern both if you are already in (my choice) or still confirming stuff. Gettin past the 50% was crucial. Thre is a wiggle there that can get amplified. Instead of writing all this on the chart I wrote watch out and some words that wouldn't fit in the box. The original poster, I think, used the red#'s for a trade. I wanted to illustrate the safe ground that he was on and also show more opportunity to him. I like your attitude about this; I'm sure you picked off the market bottom as real reversal oppotunity right on the first two bars before and after the BO through the right "short" trend line. To do that on low volume shows the cat is coming off support and it's going to be a blast through midday. (A la the MACD set of continuingly reinforcing unflawed signals. The two volume sequences (weak on resistance price) and the failure to bump off right side visa vis volume poop out where classic. It was a ride from support to resistance with strong sequence sgnal sets all the way. My mental orientation is to not let myself see deliniations on any scale finer than 10 point gradations. By amplifying price by five as done here, it tends to make me less smooth in my personal calibration.
cable went out for several hours midday so i missed the big midday runnup. my review: 1. 11:10 s(10.34, 23.74) macd hist -.73 low 876.50 this was low never broken so NO TRADE was entered. note: the action of the 11:15 reminded very much like the action on tuesday at 10:00...we got a short signal at the low of day and the next bar was a lower volume inside green bar that led to good reversal...again volume drying up being a key and was followed by a macd xo. both led to good reversals. also the sequence was failed rocket from low of day---->macd xo ----->potential rocket zone also after the big midday runnup the macd xo marked the beginning of a downtrend channel which lead to a potential rocket setup. 2. 1:45 s(3.45,16.76) macd hist -.56 low 886 entered on break of low of the bar....now here some people might differ on what to do. mkt bounce and stoch left the short zone, BUT was still within my defined downtren channel (see chart) so i held as i was looking for my pt 3. i would have exited had the downtrend channel been broken or the macd xo....reverses off the top of channel and stochs reenter short zone. ok we get ANOTHER short signal at 2:15 s(8.33, 23.55) and that same sneaky low volume inside green bar shows up AGAIN. so when the high of the 2:20 is broken i am history at 856.00 short @ 885.75 cover @ 856.00 -0.25 day: -0.25 4 days: 9.50 note: again the macd xo off of the failed rocket led to a trend move that lasts the rest of the day. actually turns into a rocket. 3. 2:50 s(96.00, 85.62) macd hist +0.67 high 890.50 enter on break of high. again stoch spikes briefly below and someone sticking to the letter of the law might exit, but this is the first red bar of this entire trend move (i.e point 3). held to end of day and exited at 894.50 long @ 890.75 sell @ 894.50 +3.75 day: +3.50 4 days: +13.00 very happy with the week w/ only 4 days of trading for me (w/ missing monday which had a big trade and today's midday move) and all this war crap. have a good weekend.
Jack, thanks for the feedback. The reason I took the entry is that the signal was triggered, with volume on the rise and enough room to resistance. One additional reason was that price crossed the 20 SMA. Before looking at your method I was trading an MA cross that tested well, was capturing 20 pt moves but had too many whipsaws. Your volume action comments are interesting - the sequence that you mention, what do you mean by right side - the right ascending trendline? Do you suggest holding through the whole move? Or exit when the volume dries up with failure at resistance and reentry on bounce off trendline with volume picking up? More questions after I read the whole thread - I see that dawg is familiar with 1,2,3 and end effects. I had it set to a 10 point scale but I resized the window before I posted the chart. I find this very helpful as I was using the "autoscale" setting (that makes charts look nicer as you mentioned) and was often mistaking a wiggle for a big move. One scale for all allows you to calibrate your eyes to the chart. Thanks, vorzo
Look for the ****'s where I inserted comments. Thanks for your reply. My comments all intended to be constructive.