I don't know how backtesting works. It is something I am trying to get a handle on. The initial results formed a baseline for me. Idid figure out that the way backtesting was set up affects the results. Right now there is just one order of magnitude difference in the results of different people do the same thing. I was hoping to see how iterative refinement worked as well but that opportunity has passed us by.
I am not sure I understand what you mean. Anything that can be definitively defined can be backtested. Perhaps what you are saying is that Jack's method has enough subjectivity that two people looking at the same chart and following his methods would not come to the same conclusion. In that case it obviously cant be backtested. On the whole, while I enjoyed reading about "icebergs", "switching fractals", and "cheating on the 1m chart", I still havent seen any new system emerge that might produce substantially different results from those originally tested. I know that a variety of people here now swear by Jack's methodology, but my primary observations here are (1) Just about everyone who trades with his methodology is actually applying a lot of subjectivity to it so that the entries and the exits vary substantially and many trades are not taken at all. (2) The total test period is so short that it's absolutely impossible to draw any meaningful statistical conclusions. The historical backtest over several years has a number of such months that happen to be profitable, however, long term analysis doesnt agree with such a conclusion. Now I am not saying that everything Jack has proposed is wrong or without merit. Perhaps with some additional rules, or combined with intuition there is merit in his ideas. However, all the hard and fast rules that he has defined are not profitable over any sustained period of time. -blueberrycake
Okay by putting together all the pieces you see a nice situation. The synch keeps you alert on the gap. You nail down points 1,2,3 and you have a trend. The point3 is kewl because it's on the right line and you have the risk out of the way. As you ride along you need to use the indicator signals jsut the regular old way for your skill level. The advanced guys get to use MACD to day and slalom along once that phase starts up.
now we see the difference between absolute (MACD) and realtive (% based Stoc). We are in a positive trend where the first burst from the inital point 3 is done. New point 3 time. The experts slalomed until we got to convergence in the congestion, convergence, centering sequence. you see volume going to DU. for those who wish a bracket is an appropriate safe entry technique. More later on that stuff . The beginners did the rocket thing and washes. Ice berger intermediates are hanging in doing the point 1,2,3 thing We have a bounce off the right line and a flat top pennant formed to correlate formationwise. Get a new poiint 3 and hang inthere. Beginners will have another rocket in the 13:15 pm start up. 13:15 will coma a little early today so set up now for it. a couple of you will use the 50% BO up to trigger. Go for it. i am stepping up my commentary to be a little further ahead in my comments. it may bias you into making more money. Also there is a chance i might screw it up so that will be fun for the detractors. For back testing you can see about 8 backtests to do so far. I now know that the backtesters cannot percisve the nuances of this stuff so don't worry about it. My stuffappears to be subjective as they are only an order of magnitude apart so far. LOL. Watch that FTP BO. GEt squence note down on this one.
Jack, I am confused - would it be possible for you to post a chart with today's trend lines drawn in?
zip your chart in here please. It should look like the 12 chart sgments I did on the weekend under the thread entitled "determining trends". Friday's lateral ended. point 1 at 9:45; point 2 at 9:55; point 3 at 10:05 Go to slower fractal to get "tape" back on 5 min new point three at 11:45 It BO's into a lateral trend at Noon. trend is over. But ice beregs are still in trade. They can jump out if they wish. The reason would be a great one. The MACD is centering. Nobody stays in then because the BO on MACD is a bracket entry. Beginners never did make it back in.
Take a minute. Go from the 5 to the 15 then to the 30, then to the 60 Do you see a kind of happening here? Now drop back to the 5 min. We are trying to pull down some money here. You have a run from 790's to 850 ish. We need to pick off more than the point to point value at all times (call this a 60 points). Even though the pm volume has not picked up, just like it didn't on Friday, you still can watch and do the regular stuff.
...oh da pain, da pain. Not from losses, but from a lack of belief. I saw the "buy signal" at 10:05, but was too afraid to take it. 02:25 Long @857.50 02:30 xxxx @857.50 Entered a potential "Rocket" that wasn't. All in all. it was a very disappointing day - all the work, all the reading and study was for naught, because I obviously just didn't have enough faith - damn-it.