Went back and reviewed today's trades... 1. Enter: short @ 822.25 9:45 stoch(17.65, 22.55) macd hist: -0.806 low of the 9:45 bar 822.50. So short on the break 822.25. 1M Chart: When the mkt makes a new low at 9:51 the 1M MACD is making a higher low (warning sign?) and the mkt makes another new low at 9:59 while the 1m MACD is flat and quickly reverses and XO at 10:00. This XO could have us looking for an exit? Exit above high of bar is 822.00 This is confirmed on the 5m chart at 10:00 bar with the stoch(29.55, 13.27). The 5m is also a bullish engulfing bar. Exit above 5m bar is 823. Looking back at it all: You have a diverging 1m MACD (twice 9:51 and 9:59) and then 1m MACD XO. As well as an engulfing bar at 10:00 on the 5m. This all says exit. 2. 10:30 stoch(88.64, 77.27) macd hist: +1.07 good readings, but i hated that it ocurred right at 830 on the nose. and that the mkt had already run 11pts to get there. Looking back at 1M chart: MACD is pretty much even with the peaks at 10:18 and 10:20. The biggest red flag to me is that there is a negative XO at 10:35 and we are looking to enter a long trade after a long move already from lows to new highs. 3 . 1:40 stoch(85.71, 61.90) macd hist: +0.45 Looking back at 1M: 1:47 when mkt is breaking the previous 5m bar's high the 1m MACD is making a LOWER HIGH and the has a NEG XO at 1:48. (danger will robinson...danger) And at 1:53 when the market is trying to move higher the 1M still stays with the NEG XO and eventually XO zero. In this case I would think make the market prove itself and only buy on a break of the 1:45 high of 823.75. 4. 2:40 stoch(85.71, 61.90) macd hist: +0.45 2:45 stoch(85.71, 77.51) macd hist: +0.49 LONG SIGNAL Looking back at 1M: When the mkt is at the high of the 2:40 bar and does not break out it forms a lower high and then a NEG XO at 2:47. And again at 2:54 when it challenges the same 824.50 price the 1m MACD is much lower and never even crosses back over. So what does this all mean...well there are times to enter during the 5m bar when you get a signal and times to wait and make it b/o over the high of the 5m bar...and I will now think of these examples when faced with those choices. What is the 1m conveying to us...is the trend extended (are we seeing divergences) or are we potentially early in the tremd. Clearly the best time to be entering during the 5m bar signal is when we can get in at what looks like the beginning of a trend and not the end (i think of this mornings 10:30 signal) especially when it is against clear resistance or the 1m gives a NEG XO signal 1m after we get a 5m buy signal. Interested in some feedback from the others. I know i am going to clean up my charts. i think i have too much stuff going on and really going to concentrate on the 5m and 1m for the next couple of sessions.
Jack is always talking about sequences and i think this i what he is talking about. in a short rocket----->1m MACD Divg. (9:51 and 9:59)---->1m MACD XO zero(10:00)---->5m bullish engulfing bar---->5m MACD XO (10:00-10:05)---->5m MACD XO zero (10:20) the rocket fails but this turns into a kickass MACD Rev trade i think of this as a potential sequence for a macd reversal. Just thought i would throw this out there. Jack any comments?
I just went over my version of today's trades by hand. I used 5 min. closing bars and did not use 1 min. bars at all. Skipping no trades, today's result was -5 points. Last week, this same system was +17.75 for the week.
Guys, I just went back over my charts - in every single case of bad (losing) 5M signals, the 1M MACD (not the Histogram) was headed the other way. It really could not be more clear.
Tampa, This is a significant discovery. It fits into the KISS arrivsl that Jack promises we will reach. I am pleased with my new trading set up that Jack has/is teaching me, and plan on perfecting over the next 2 years. I guess I am now known as a Hersheyite. Am I allowed to eat chocolate anymore? Michael
Gorden, you're not listening. This method has two parts - when to trade, and when not to. The 5M chart is real easy to clean up on during trending markets - it will kill you in non-trending, choppy markets (as you now know). You MUST pay attention to the 1M MACD (not the Histogram) - otherwise you are wasting your time, and your money. I traded the same charts to day, only made two trades, and at least made back my commissions. How is that possible? The one-minute MACD. Forget what the method did last week, because this is now, and that was then. The first law of trading is: Preservation of $$$ Jack's method will do just that IF you pay attention to ALL aspects of it.
Most every day someone on ET hawks some method - some path to sure success - only it just never quite works out that way. The main reason seems to be the inability to know when to sit on your hands. Jack's entries may be no better than others - what he is teaching me is when to sit on my big fat hands!!! Could he do it in an easier to understand way? I think so, but it's his game, and I'll play by his rules. Glad to see that I helped open your eyes - I only saw it late yesterday. BTW - I hadden't seen the 50% line early entries until you pointed them out...so maybe we're even
i wish you guys luck. and when/if one of you manages to make it work AND can put the stuff in English rather than Jackerese then maybe i'll use it too