I wait for synch. the MACD had to spread (diverge from prior entwined close. It is perfectly alright to stick to all the rules. The situation was not a gap up and it was just what looks like a smooth trend with many hour timeout overnight. You get past the "end effects" of staring a new day and then you are at work making money again. When you can't make money you are out and sidelined.
jack, I'm thinking you're showing some anger. Why? I'm not the only one who offered a different version of stochastics. There have several attempts to figure out exactly what you are saying. I don't fault you for that. What I disagree with is your almost constant attempt to denigrate the contributions of others to this thread that may not agree with your point of view. Or to put it another way, its your way or the highway. Take a look at this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=13888 scroll down and look at the post entitled "A stochastic example". This guy, like me uses a doubly smoothed stochastic oscillator. Reviewing his *.gif files reveals he uses a time frame similar to mine for the NAZ index his are a fast line of 15 and a slow line of 65 whereas mine are a fast line of 15 and a slow line of 43. So the other day when I asked if anybody was trading the "Chop", I was curious, because there are other ways of trading stochastics than the ones you are describing. Bruce
Hi bruce: The points you got from what I said are yours and enjoy. 4 out of 5 people disagree with me. And you see that what I am starting with here is shown in backtesting to be a failure by those who are doing it for a benefit to others. In most efforts people make as a common thing, the most important activity is trying to understand each other. What I am constantly doing is putting forth in a proactive creative manner is how to begin to make some money consistently and steadily. I also feel, clearly, that the level to be made on a contract is the determinant of the level of success of the person. You see me as an angry dude. Enjoy. thank you for the two stochastics examples. their settings are examples of "bridging" with an indicator and as a consequence it does not gives "signals". I hope anyone who want to use either does that. You make an example of a person who misses stuff in this manner. the market follows sequences and they should be taken advantage of at all times. we see almost every day at the end of each fast paced rocket, the advent of congenstion, convergence and centering. After the centering there is a trend break out. You see "chop" and you also want to know something in regard to it. Others post and email me about it too. They are learning about what they want to learn about; I contribute my views. There is a connection, for me, between wash trades and the congestion, convergence, and centering (chop to you). By getting good at wash trades, a person can then do trades as he comes out of rockets (after he has made three times his initial capital). Trading into congestion is not a beginner or intermediate thing. What usually happens is "whipsawness". I can achieve some kewl stuff by combining rocket exits and wash trades. The important goal to evolve to is to get a person (beginner) to exit on the "away" side of a trend. This is on a long trend the top. this is on a short trend a bottom. If a person does this correctly then all I ask is that he double down on the contracts as well. I convert wash trades to do this as a warm up with some people (They will begin by reversing on washes). It is like a spinnaker jibe going down wind. Youdon't change the direction of the boat you just put the main and spinnaker on the etter sides for your next move. Think of being stalled in a flat trade and reversing in the stalled flat trade. There is no loss at all. You are just at risk not making any money by being in a trade that is still flat. If i connect this stuff to an "away" exit on a rocket by reversing into the first retrace I am still making money. As the congestion sets the channel width we reverse into more profits and it is just a slalom along the channel from then on. You "see" chop. We see signal after signal until the cenering is signalled and we sideline and set up for the BO out of thecentering into another rocket. Stick with your setting they bridge all these signals. You do not get to a point where you can use your default or the "smoothed" one. Smoothing is what makes it impossible to pickup a Fast line "slow entwining in a congestion and then convergence sequence. that is why I presently have different middle numbers on different stocastics so people can see how the set up for making "nickels" on congestion. You view of me is what you make it. enjoy. Disagree and dislike to your hearts content. Be critical everyway thet lets you vent. whatever you do turns into an educational experience for others each time you step up to the plate and take your swings. I'm contributing to improve people's batting averages.
Well I didn't take the opening trade although at the 9:45 5m bar Stoch(97.56, 88.08) MACD Hist:0.43 b/c all of the economic numbers at 9:45 and 10:00 spooked me. This trade cleared the 9:45 high when the economic came out and was all over the palce and so i passed. Looks like it was a winner of about at least 2pts. 1. Enter: short @ 837.25 3:40 Exit: cover @ 837.25 3:46 Total: 0.00 Day: 0.0 Week: +15.50 Reason for entry: breaking the low of day as well as out of the channel. The 3:35 5m bar stoch(11.76, 22.44) MACD Hist:-0.31. When I entered the current bar (3:40 5m bar) was below -0.4, but it was early in the bar and the mkt reversed a little and the bar did not close with a MACD Hist short signal so i got out at breakeven. Tried to anticipate a little and was wrong, but didn't get hurt. That's it. Good week. Look forward to see what next week brings. This week stats for my stoch trades: +15.50 11 trades 7 Winners (63%)(3.25, 3.25, 1.25, 4.75, 2.25, 4.75, 1.25) 3 Losers (-1.25, -2.75, -1.25) 1 Flat largest loser: -2.75 largest winner: 4.75 (twice) I would be interested to hear anyone elses results for the week to see if can improve on entries and exits.
Two trades today... 12:33 Short at 841 12:45 Out At 840.50 03:40 Short at 837.50 03:50 Out at 838.25 Minus 0.25 on the day. Am I happy? No, I'm thrilled. While I have not totally "accepted" Jack's methods, I believe in the entries. That has kept me out of the market when I should have been. I still need to "accept" the exits without secondguessing the method. Obviously I wish that I had done better this week, but I have no complaints.
jack, I'll have to say, looking at both 3-minute and 5-minute charts, you are correct. Attempting to trade the settings I use for stochastics (43/15) & (172/60) is a real trial. However, using 1-minute bars, I can begin to get into the ballpark. I really chart and trade using tick charts, so can see the input I might make to this discussion is of limited value to people using the minute and higher charts. I can see how it would be difficult to trade the "Chop" using the time frames you are using. However, I believe these shorter tick charts are able to help identify nicely trending prices not noticed when using the longer time frames. That's what I came to recognize after I asked if anyone was trading the "Chop" the other day. Your update pretty much confirmed that several others were not seeing what I was seeing. Well, this is getting windy, as there is no need to post a picture to show my viewpoint. Regards, Bruce
tampa i had no idea what to do...it was like middle of the day, but it is a clear setup...doh! i think what most important is that you don't get burned entering under these setups and if there is any rally/selloff you will definitely be in for it. It's like single, single, strikeout, strikeout, triple. Have a good weekend.
Jack I am confused on how you use the term 'wash trade' do you mean for example: enter a short at the top of a channel like today (2-28) near 846.50 or so and exit near the bottom of the channel' or do you mean entering and exiting at the same price. Basically fading support and resistance in a channel after a rocket. So an advanced trader would exit out of his rocket and by doubling the contracts on his exit he would have a short position to ride into the congestion/channel/convergence and exit on the 'away' side of the channel. And continue this until centering towards zero on the MACD and then we just sit and wait for the b/o to occur and look for our rocket. Thanks in advance.
You believe in the entries? May I know why? Seems to me that by not entering your trades at all you would have made more money than by entering them. BTW, I always believed that every fool can enter a trade but it takes a wise man to exit it. Your comments only prove my point. Exits are much more important if only because they are more difficult, yet most concentrate on entries as if this was some Holy Grail to trading.