Thanks! I read your post in the 'mental ceilings' thread about the similarities of coordinate systems (I think of this (transition between states) in terms of n-space vectors) for both FA and TA and matrices thereof. Blew my lid, and enhanced my understanding of this thread. I'm starting to wonder how one assesses the probability of one neighboring cell/state relative to the others. I.e., as I build sequences, how (if ever) can you predict the next branch. Regards, Laz
Jack or anyone. What is "OT"? Thanks. _____________________________________________________ "OT Today was three days long. It felt that way to me. I was sooo glad to see that volume hen the move. I stayed on 15 min for a moment and went down to 5. I haven't seen the 1min today. I have seen daily and 60 and 30 though. "
OT = Off Topic. Dawg, if you played the early entry short on the Sto crossing 50 (9:50 bar), when that rallied hard against you did you simply bail for a 1.00-1.50 pt loss, or did you reverse. And if you did the latter, where did you choose to reverse (and why)? Thanks.
short @ 987.75 (5m 50 xo) cover/reverse 989.00 (2m macd xo and TL break) -1.25 long 989.00 (from reverse) exit 989.00...not going anywhere 0.00 that is it for me so far. current thinking: slow downtrend...but i am sidelined edit...10:46: looks small range bound
9:44 macd -.5, waiting for stoch 9:50 stochs xunder 50 convincingly, Short @ 988.00 stochs get scary while forming pt 3, but think the 'crowd' is in reversal mode, will wait. no new stops @ 10:30, remember reading that if you can't write down new stops, get out as the mkt doesn't know where it's going. cover short @ 988.50 (-.5) 9:37 short rocket forming, but 1min macd xover imminent. thought to myself "I bet this turns into a channel slalom long" still noticing that vol spikes on 1min are tattle-tales. on the 5 min, is the 9:55 bar the vdu? these are my thoughts so far today. --laz
I just read over the complete "mental ceilings" thread and the "prospcet theory" thread. Cool stuff. It seems like the matrix Jack referrs to is similar to (if not in fact the same thing as) the wall poster he said to create where you lay out the flaws in chronology of occurence and do this for multiple fractals in rows stacked on top one another. What is the significance of all of this? In particular, if the market moves from cell to cell, what does this mean. Also, could the market move to diaganol cells. In effect, a flaw in one fractal could move to a sequence in a different fractal. I admit, I'm a theory junkie and I love to understand how stuff works. But, alas, after reading these threads I'm finding I understand the words but not what they mean.
10:53 short rocket @ 985 (anticipated) 11:02 eyeing macd xover 1m, but signal line is far out, wait to see if it reverses 11:06 getting nervous 11:11 cant figure out what's next, declining vol, time to exit.. cover @ 984 (+1) --laz
Thanks Dawg. Looks like it turned into a nice iceberg, but those are awful tough to hang in there when they go against you right away. That's always my dilemma, when I've got no cushion and I'm wondering "is this a reversal..."
Your wall chart is where we are going with the work you do. Think of the operating cell as the center of a tic tac toe board. You see eight adjacent cells. Knowing that the market migrates instead of jumping where ever, tells you it will go to one of the eight cells. One dimensional moves L, R, U, D take less input of new force. The diagonal moves (4) require a compound force. Take midday as a force. The tendancy is to move to a slower fractal , thus a vertical move downward. By pasting on the wall chart the sequences you get the idea of a "zone of activity. This lets you see that cells can be defined in a contstruct akin to doing FA's (Fundamental Analysis) on stocks. Risk distribution is the principle of portfolios. FA is how people assess stocks to add them to thier porfolio commonly. When you have a lot of capital and are playing ES, a lot of people deal with risk management, especially those who do "edge". We do SCT so we do not have their risk management problems. But soon we do got to ap of cap (application of capital) considerations. They center on fills. Phase III the guidebook will cover this. Itis an adjunct to the SCT core of making money.
This is congestion. you are looking for something to end congestion. Yesterday you knew news was coming in the PM one the rates. Before rate was annouced almost everyone knew to not be at risk. after that risk disappeared you saw the volume ramp up and the market began to function again. Notice the current volume. Draw three lines (rays so you have volume referents. trends need a basic level. Congestion results when the volume is below a given level. the middle level is where there is no powerful enough forse to change what is going on. going through the middle takes you out of congestion (going up). Going down through the middle means trends will poop out. Add all these to your sequences. Exit on the low side of the congestion or stay in if you see that the channel is still there and when volume does pick up, then you see the price following the trend. just know that the trend is a very slow paced one and the signal to noise is very poor. Why take risks? Park it. then look for setting up an entry in an hour or so.