Jack, The first quote is what brought me too the next level. I have read this post multiple times but only now understand what that statement means. You could have said it multiple times and i still wouldnt have truly understood. It takes a revelation. Thanks again Jack. This is great. jc
When we are in a pace which allows us to be on the 5 and 1 min fractal pair ( charts ) we log our stop on the 1 min, adding, crossing out and erasing as needed, and staying back 4 or 2 for the fast pace rockets. Logging and keeping 4 back keeps us in through the hitches, stalls and small retrancements in a medium to fast pace on the 5 min. On a slow paced day like last Thursday where we were on the 5 and 15 min charts it didn't take long to erase back into the crossed out stops and become sidelined. My question is how far back do we stay, logging on the 1 min, to keep us in on a slow paced trend on the 15 min. If we move to logging on the 5 min and the pace picks up we are not ready with stops for a faster pace so staying way back like 8 or 10 or more on the 1 min would seem to work, but I don't know if this is the proper thing to do. Suggestions anyone? Thanks Steve
You willfind that the rocket and iceberg entries come before a channel is rolling. There are lots of ways things happen, but I can speak about common ones to get a point made. Many people here use the 5 min and they do annotations of right lines. Often there is a right line in effect most of the time. Gaps occassionally make things less continuous and that's how it goes. some times a spike will slip out of the channels as well. With this as the common setting. What happens first in a trade is that you enter according to your skill level. You then focus on the money making situation. I am not going to go through loads of possibilities. You stay in the trade and you see that you are leaving the vicinity of point 1. Well look for point two. People have many things crossing their minds after point 2. By keeping track of a stop log, you can keep your mind sort of free of thoughts that potentially cause you to not be able to hold. holding is a patience exercise for some. I am a weener on this stuff. I wish people to sit and watch. You see width of the channel at point 2. the width is a strip with point 1 on the right and point two on the left. You rerally do not know the strip width nor how the strip is tipped in slope. both of these things you do not know are perfectly okay as you make money in the trend. There is no fear needed. Skip the fear pictures for now. all the indicators and volume are chugging. the price graph needs to give you a point 3 and it is not giving you an exit. Whether you are in a rocket or an iceberg does not matter. Going away from point 2 is an adjustment the market is making to get the trend pace taken care of. Let it be taken care of. When point 3 comes up, it is tense. Getting the first 10,000 point 3's in 10,000 trends is sort of tense. Until it happens 10,000 times there are still those creepy little questions that come up. Pretend you are past that just for fun. You see point three and you go to work on the chart with a line giving the right slope and you clone it to point 2. Now you are looking around. you see you can turn it into a tape on a slower fractal but you want to wait to be sure about point 3for the 10,000 time. after you let yourself admit it is a point 3, you can see that the indicators and volume and stuff is chugging as it would. We can explore for other things now. after point three we have beat through the 3:1 R/R target poop outs and we see that maxing profits is more fun than targets. We try to forget about targets for a moment. Keep filling thestop log. Lots of new entries as you move away from point 3. we may see any of the following. we bop to the left side. we cruise there. we go there a little slower. we see the cycle time for the trend. we set up a reasonable period to C&R. we add some C&R times across the log. after the left line is hit we head to the right. again. Okay look for leeting the old point 3 be replaced if the trend pace slows a little. If you do then draw all the lines over again. So it goes. Sooner or later we get out the flaw box. it has cards with flaws in it. On the opposite side of each card are things to do when you find the flaw. Make up one flawcard now. Write on the top (the side you keep up): Stall inmiddle of right to left move. On the other side write: reverse if I am an intermediate. Beginners are ot turning this card over as yet. This is because the rocket on the STOC ended and they diselined already just to be safe and make money. If you are not a step skipper and you are keeping sequence lists as you do your stop log and monitor, simply make up some flaw cards from your sequence lists. Temporarily put exit on the other side of each one. thee are several people here who have posted other answers already. for those people put your prior statements on the other side of the flaw. you may think this is fifth grader like condescending chat on my part. Actually it is cheerful stuff that is really setting you up to make money. A flaw box is a little silver thing you buy at Cartier or that light blue box place (Tiffany's). if it is out of your way temporarily, get a cigar box or a single wine bottle wooden box. It may sound strange but the day you have a flaw box is the day that you always have the answer as what to do. If you do not see flaws, you hang in there. hey okay. If you have a flaw box, look for the flaw. If it's there turn it over and do whatit says. If your box doen't have a card. Exit. Take out a blank card and fill it in as the market tells you what to do. use your big butcher paper wall chart to lay out more and more sequences as days go by. Pastethe one's that come up alot on top of the former one's you added already. we want a deep wall chart. Always put up red flaw lables where the sequence ended with a flaw. One the other side of the flaw place the sequence that followed to make money if it did not end in an exit. You will notice that things loop back into the left side of your wall chart.. At first just draw lines back into where it goes to repeat. NEW ITEM The first time you redo your wall chart. Put in some horizontal levels. Let the top be one minute band. Put a wide 5 min band below that . then a 15 min band and then a 30 min band. do a 60 min and and a daily at the bottom. You can paste sequences in where they happen. You will find out how it divieds up vertically in a while. for now make the BO pieces of the sequences be green so they stand out. You will need about three separate places where these show up untimately. For now just use loopy lines to get back to a sequence. If you do not skip over doing some visual work, you are going to come to a place where your self taught personal reinforcement makes you a wizard. Some day a lot of you are going to have silver flaw boxes that you never have to open. There is no "edge" box for where we are going.
Sometimes the most simple things tend to confuse us the most. That's how it with stop logs for me. If possible, could someone post a copy of their stop log for the day. It would be immeasureably helpful.
I see what you mean now, Jack. We all still have this early exit flaw. In the future we are to focus on the sequence, the exits and profits will take care of themselves. I have also noticed that the C&R log is not only to keep us where our stops should be, but it keeps the left side of the brain complex to the fore, so we cannot easily form right sided fear pictures. Good Idea. Now, about the speed of the trend. You have parameters on the C&R log for fast vs. slow trends. What is fast and what is slow for us? Right now, I am using the angle of the slope on the right trend line(Murrey and Gann). Angle between 22.5 and 45 are normal speed. Angle < 22.5 are slow. Angle > 45 are fast. Please correct any flaws that you see. I'm off to Office Max for some supplies
the long ver. of stop log http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&selm=88fs0f$656$1@nnrp02.primenet.com
Jack, Thanks for the great post. It's filled with wonderful, enabling pictures. I have binders full of your posts going back to the Google days and this one ranks up there as one of your all-time best.
I wrote on my flaw card: Failure to Traverse- Intermediate Reverse: Use 1 min MACD crossover to reverse into what is either a slolom or the start of a new trend. I like this flaw card stuff,it is a great way out of the real time brain freeze I have gotten in the past.
Your posting is almost perfect I used *** to indicate my comments for your quick review "Jerome V. Braun" <jerome.braun@kmri.com> wrote in message news:wkemaat2rd.fsf@kmri.com... > Hi Jack! > > First, thank you very much for your answers. They > clarified the form for me greatly. > > I'd like to summarize my understanding, and ask a couple > of follow-up questions. To be definite, I will assume > that we start filling in the sheet on 2/17/2000 at > 09:00 EST. *** I start in such a way the see the open of CBOT, because the gaps and the way it settles in (especially volume0 is of interest to see the market "sentiment". i am doing other stuff too. > > Trend Analysis Sheet > first part: lines from "Sync:" to "Market Note Headers" > second part: lines from "Market Note Headers" to "Formation:" > third part: lines from "Formation:" to "Trade Preparation Notes" > fourth part: lines from "Trade Preparation Notes" > > *Use of the Trend Analysis Sheet* > > 1. Fill in the "Day" and "Date" fields with the current day > and date respectively. > > E.g., "Thu" and "2/17/2000". > > 2. Fill in the "yesterday" and first "near past" column in > the "Limits" section in the first part. > > 2.a. Values for yesterdays top and bottom are yesterday's > contract high and low. > > 2.b. Values for near past top and bottom are today's > contract high and low. > > E.g., > yesterday near past > Limits 2/16/2000 09:00 10:00 11:00 > Tops 10780 10720 > Bottoms 10595 10645 > > 2.c. Update the "Limits" section once per hour. > > E.g., > yesterday near past > Limits 2/16/2000 09:00 10:00 11:00 > Tops 10780 10720 10720 > Bottoms 10595 10645 10645 > > yesterday near past > Limits 2/16/2000 09:00 10:00 11:00 > Tops 10780 10720 10720 10720 > Bottoms 10595 10645 10645 10540 > > 3. Fill in "Close" fields in the "Spread" section. > (16:00 close for INDU, 16:20 close for DJ00H) > > E.g., "Close 10604 10570 34" > > 4. Starting at 09:33, begin filling in the rows of > the "Spread" section. > > 4.a. A row is completed every three minutes. > > 4.b. Note the behavior for both INDU and DJ00H > of the following indicators: MACD curves, > 1-minute bar formations, and volume. > > 4.c. When the spread settles down and begins to > repeat, /and/ when the indicators agree between > INDU and DJ00H, declare synchronicity. > > E.g., > Spread DJ00H INDU spread Indicators agree? > Close 10604 10570 34 > 09:33 10680 10618 62 no > 09:36 10685 10650 35 no > 09:39 10700 10655 45 yes *** Here you see how the spread does come into a particular value where there is a change in index values of nearly 100 points. > > 5. Fill in the "Time" and "Value" fields of the "Sync" > section. > > E.g., "Sync: Time 09:39 Value 10700" > > 6. Starting at 09:00, begin filling in the cells of > the second part. > > 6.a. Use a 15-minute interval for the time field. > Alternatively, use peak and trough times. > > E.g., "time 09:00 09:15 09:30 09:45 10:00" ***I would be flexible here. More frequent when change is taking place less frequent as a steady cnage is going down or its flat in the middle of the days. To the right of the values, I add an arrow to highlight the diection of the move. If none I use a ~, if a lot of change two or three arrows. I cicle rereversals as well. i focus on unanimity of movement to indicate slow pace of extended trends and "mixed" to anticipate a "choppy" series of short trends. i also notice which one "peel" off first as a trend is developing. The tick is important for each. The NYSE ticks are spread all over the exchange and don't specifically reltethe any index. hte CBOT tick is cummulative and acts as a volume indicator not a direction indicator; it is found under the streaming data with a click. > > 6.b. Fill in values for DJ, INDU, SPX, RUTX, > and COMPX. > > *More Questions* > > 1. To what do "tk INDU" and "tk DJ" refer? *** see above. > 2. Supposing that the first column is time 09:00, over > the next 15 minutes what should I write down in the > 5-minute and 1-minute sections? ***Fill in the pre NYSE open stuff that is coming thru for CBOT. Start with the first peak/troughfor each. it usually turns out there are a few 1 mins and 1 ..5 min. Its a good time to get the rythm going and set the first right line on the 5 min chart. Usually it will carry over from the prior day.