the start of the new BULL ???

yeah exactly...yeah we had two huge up days but we've had like months and months of down days too

 

The Intermarket analysis chapters in John Murphy's The Visual Investor is worth a re-reading. Murphy's says commodity prices are usually a good leading indicator of stock market turns, since commodities are the raw materials that feed into the economic cycle. Higher commodity prices mean lower stock prices because higher commodity prices squeeze profits.

Right now Investor's Business Daily shows crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline going up. Gold looks like its topping, but that might be a temporary stall before going higher. And the Commodity Rearch Bureau Index looks like it might be heading up again.

Just my .02

 

I'm bullish, so definately continue shorting.

 

How about 3 days? How many days does it take?

Ed

 

You're kidding, right?

At all times there are 3 trends present. The short term, intermediate term and long term trends. When we say bull market or bear market we refer to the long term trend. There can be intermediate up or down trends within the bear market. In my book a close above 1100 means we are in an up intermediate term trend, while a close below 1090 confirms the intermediate term trading range.

The catch about changing from a bear to bull market is that with these long term trends, at least if you are a follower / believer of Dow theory, you don't realize you are in a bull market until it has moved up 1/3 off the bottom, and you don't realize you are in a bear market until it has moved down 1/3 from the top.

 

Again i'm showing myself as odd man out by saying i really don't care about the indexes.

I look at six or seven hundred charts every night, the top ten percent of the market in terms of liquidity. And my eyeballs are telling me that just about everything that rallied big this week was already ten feet underwater. My .02 is that this rally is mostly covering, courtesy of the heavily short hedge funds who woke up Monday morning to find their nuts in a vice grip.

 

Yes. I was just trying to upgrade myself to member. What is the name of your book?

Ed

 

Too funny. Congratulations on member status. I gotta get that book too.

 

"courtesy of the heavily short hedge funds who woke up Monday morning to find their nuts in a vice grip."

I almost fell out of my chair reading that Darkhorse.
Imagine you on TV saying that and then: .......and now back to you Maria!

 

Now at 57% bearish sentiment (votes for 3rd and 4th option). looks like the late money is coming in on the bulls

Maybe the squeeze is done ....

As to my opinion, I simply don't have one. I will take what the market gives me on a DAILY basis

Trade Smart!

Tony