I'm holding a short that moved into loss territory in AH on the weak bag of "positive news". After reading a few articles like this one:http://www.thestreet.com/comment/swingshift/10022208.html I feel a lot better holding a few days through the "mania" of a bump up on false hope. Everyone seems to be ignoring all the negative aspects of the earnings reports as they come out the day they hit. Then 2 days later reality sets in. I wasn't the least bit impressed with CISCO's report when I read it although it did look better than I thought. Hardly justified a market turn around in my mind though. Same with AMAT's report. Oh well. Good luck which ever way you land.
What I also found interesting today was the TRINQ was hovering between .7 and.85 all day. Hardly the bullish sentiment of last Wed when it was betwen .15 and .20. Also today's afterhours action was mildly tame compared with last week's CSCO performance. Yes you can say it was priced in, but I'd still bet we're witnissing another bull trap.
Just to put things in the context of the 200 day moving average, we are not out of the woods yet... we need to hold 2001 and 1998 support and the Nasdaq needs to turn above the 200 day moving average and remain there, enabling a 200 day moving average to begin a gentle ascent, akin to that which we witnessed in 1997 & 1998... I suppose it is encouraging that at least the Nasdaq and its 200 day moving average have converged, giving it a shot of a sustainable breakout and generalised reversal in a longer-term context... personally I would like the Nasdaq to reach about 2250 on a gentle ascent before I get too excited about the prospect of a sustainable rally going forward... but the macroeconomic picture has most certainly gotten rosier of late, with positive corporate results, excellent consumer numbers and a sniff of dollar strengthening... who knows, maybe Greenie will be inclined to raise rates soon! Even if a rally is not imminent, a trading range is a possibility, resulting from a trickling in of institutional money coupled with a modicum of institutional prevarication and/or summer vacationing ... by definition, a trading range will have a similar number of up days as down days, giving more intraday opportunities to those amongst us with a longside inclination... the worry in the shorter-term for myself is not about market direction, but of relative volume; with Summer soon to be upon us, a deterioration in aggregate trading volume would conceivably lead to diminished intraday follow-thru and increased choppiness... http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/pr.../intchart/frames/frames.asp&prms=qcd&sid=3291
These up moves are definitely substantial. The only problem I have is they are primarily pre market futures driven with most of the "substantial " price action happening in a thinly traded pre market. You have to figure that most of the stocks going up 2 points today were there at 9:30:01am on a few percent of the daily trade. However the down days have so far been down with most market pricing happening during reg trade hrs. This Tues seemed alot like last Wed. I would need to see some real buying to be convinced.
You're right about the futures this week. They were a pre-indicator each morning. This morning they are down not up as of 7:15AM EST. **Sniff..sniff*** hmmm...I smell some short sells this morning.
If the futures had gapped up this morning I would be looking short. As it is I wouldnt get in too big a hurry to short early.
people should stop dreaming bout the 90s bull market and wondering when its gonna come back and start adjusting to the mkt right now
Good points Anon...... How many times we all gotta be told?......Trade what we see, not what we think / dream?? BSAM